IMD Cuts 2026 Monsoon Forecast To 90% Of Average, Warns El Niño May Trigger Heatwaves & Rainfall Deficit

Weather Monsoon 2026: IMD has lowered India’s monsoon forecast to 90% of average rainfall, warning of El Niño-linked deficits and severe heatwaves ahead.

Weather Monsoon 2026: The IMD attributes the weaker monsoon forecast to the expected development and intensification of El Niño conditions during the latter half of the monsoon season.

Source : PTI

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• Severe heatwaves predicted for several Indian states in June.

Weather Monsoon 2026: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday issued a revised monsoon outlook for 2026, warning that rainfall during the southwest monsoon season is now expected to be weaker than previously estimated. The weather agency projected seasonal rainfall at 90 percent of the long period average (LPA), lowering its earlier April forecast of 92 percent.

The updated assessment has raised concerns over the possible impact on agriculture, food prices, and rural livelihoods, particularly as El Niño conditions are expected to develop and intensify during the latter half of the monsoon season.

According to the IMD, southwest monsoon rainfall is expected to remain below normal across large parts of the country, although some regions in Northeast India may still receive normal precipitation.

El Niño Likely To Weaken Monsoon Activity

Explaining the revised outlook, IMD officials said climate indicators point towards the formation of El Niño conditions beginning in June, with a stronger impact likely during July, August, and September, the key monsoon months.

Historically, El Niño has been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall over India. The department stated that rainfall this season is projected at 90 percent of the LPA, with a model error margin of plus or minus 4 percent, increasing the likelihood of below-normal precipitation overall.

While parts of Northeast India could receive normal rains, the IMD warned that several areas in northwest, central, and southern India may experience rainfall shortages during the season.

In its April forecast, the weather department had already indicated a subdued monsoon outlook by estimating rainfall at 92 percent of the LPA. The long-period average rainfall for the monsoon season, calculated between 1971 and 2020, stands at 87 centimeters.

IMD Warns Of Severe Heatwaves Across Several States

Apart from the rainfall deficit, the IMD also warned that heatwave conditions may intensify in multiple regions during June. States including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and parts of Andhra Pradesh are expected to face severe heat conditions in the coming weeks.

The department further predicted above-normal temperatures across parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.

Weather experts cautioned that prolonged heatwaves combined with weak rainfall could place additional stress on water availability, agriculture, and electricity demand during the summer months.

Weak Monsoon Could Hit Agriculture And Rural Economy

The revised forecast carries major economic implications because India’s agriculture sector remains heavily dependent on seasonal rainfall.

Around 51 percent of the country’s farmland relies directly on monsoon rains, accounting for nearly 40 percent of total agricultural production. Nearly half of India’s population depends on agriculture and allied activities for livelihood.

Economists warn that a weaker monsoon may increase farming costs, reduce crop yields, and place upward pressure on food inflation. Concerns are also growing over possible disruptions to fertilizer and energy supplies due to ongoing tensions in West Asia, which could further complicate the agricultural outlook.

India last recorded below-normal rainfall in 2023 when El Niño conditions also affected weather patterns. That year, the country received rainfall equivalent to 94 percent of the long period average.

Summarizing its latest assessment, the IMD stated: “Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over India is expected to be 90 percent of the long period average this year.”