Vegetable Prices May Remain High Until June Amid Above-Normal Temperatures: Crisil

Vegetable prices may begin to ease once the monsoon season commences in June, in line with the forecast from the IMD, says Crisil

Given India's vulnerability to climate change and the susceptibility of vegetables to adverse weather conditions, the future of vegetable production and pricing may be significantly impacted, Crisil notes.

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The price of vegetables, a key factor in food inflation, is expected to remain high over the next few months due to above-normal temperatures projected to last until June, according to a report by rating agency Crisil. The agency anticipates that vegetable prices may begin to ease once the monsoon season commences in June, in line with the forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Crisil stated on April 25 that "the IMD has predicted an above-normal southwest monsoon in 2024, which bodes well for vegetable prices, but the distribution of monsoon rainfall will also play a crucial role. The expectation of continued above-normal temperatures until June may keep vegetable prices elevated in the short term."

India, known for its climatic vulnerability, faces increasing weather-related challenges such as heat waves, flooding, storms, and shifting monsoon patterns. These conditions may significantly impact vegetable production and prices due to changing weather patterns.

Crisil also noted that rising temperatures could worsen pest issues, potentially affecting crop yields. In fiscal year 2024, vegetables accounted for about 30 per cent of food inflation, much higher than their 15.5 per cent share in the food index. The surge in prices was not limited to tomatoes and onions but extended to other vegetables as well.

The World Meteorological Organization reported that 2023 was the warmest year on record, with temperatures reaching 1.45 ± 0.12°C above the pre-industrial average. This is part of a broader trend of global warming, with the last decade experiencing the 10 warmest years on record, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

India, too, has seen record high temperatures and other extreme weather conditions, leading to an increase in the frequency of such events. A report by the Centre for Science and Environment revealed that India experienced an extreme weather event on 86 per cent of the days during the first nine months of 2023.

Monsoon patterns in India have also been affected by climate change, as highlighted by a recent study from the Council on Energy, Environment, and Water. The study found changes in monsoon patterns over the past four decades, with increasing occurrences of both excess and deficient rainfall.

Given India's vulnerability to climate change and the susceptibility of vegetables to adverse weather conditions, the future of vegetable production and pricing may be significantly impacted. Rising temperatures and pest issues are likely to further exacerbate the situation.