US Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates By 50 Basis Points Amid Economic Concerns

US Fed Rate Cut: This marks the beginning of what experts believe will be a series of cuts, driven by concerns about the health of the US job market

Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the central bank’s growing optimism about balancing employment and inflation.

Source : US Federal Reserve

US Fed Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by 0.5 percentage points on Wednesday, signaling a larger-than-anticipated move to ease borrowing costs. This marks the beginning of what experts believe will be a series of cuts, driven by concerns about the health of the US job market. The central bank's decision reflects growing confidence that inflation is moving closer to the Fed's 2 per cent target.

"The committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 per cent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance," said policymakers from the Fed’s rate-setting committee in a statement. However, the move was not unanimous, with Governor Michelle Bowman dissenting, favouring a more modest 0.25 percentage point reduction.

The Federal Reserve’s updated projections indicate further cuts are likely. Officials expect the benchmark interest rate to fall by another 0.5 percentage points by the end of 2024, followed by an additional full percentage point reduction in 2025. By 2026, the rate is expected to settle in the 2.75 per cent to 3 per cent range.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the central bank’s growing optimism about balancing employment and inflation. "This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2 per cent," Powell stated at a press conference.

Following the Fed’s announcement, US stock markets saw gains, the US dollar weakened against other currencies, and U.S. Treasury yields declined.

"The Fed ended the pause with a bang. It’s a strong signal that they cut by 50 basis points and expect another 50 basis points of cuts this year. This was controversial," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. Despite inflation remaining "somewhat elevated," policymakers said the rate cut was warranted due to ongoing progress in reducing inflation and managing economic risks.

The central bank also reaffirmed its readiness to adjust its policy stance if necessary, stating it "would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals."

This meeting was the final one before the upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5. Following the release of the Fed's statement, investors put a 64 per cent probability on a smaller 0.25 percentage point cut at the next policy meeting, set to begin a day after the election.

The size of the initial cut has sparked debate over whether the Fed is responding to a sharp decline in inflation or addressing potential concerns about a weakening labour market. Inflation is currently hovering at 2.5 per cent, just above the Fed's 2 per cent target. New projections show inflation falling to 2.3 per cent by the end of this year and 2.1 per cent by 2025.

Unemployment is expected to rise to 4.4 per cent by the end of this year, up slightly from the current 4.2 per cent, and remain at that level through 2025. Economic growth is forecasted at 2.1 per cent through 2024 and 2 per cent in 2025, consistent with previous projections from June.

The Fed had kept rates in the 5.25 per cent to 5.50 per cent range since July 2023, as inflation eased from a 40-year high to its current level near the central bank’s target.