Markets Ahead: Fed Decision, Q1 Earnings And Trump's Tariff Deadline To Set The Tone

The start of August will bring an additional layer of uncertainty, with the August 1 deadline for the suspension of Trump-era tariffs on dozens of countries, including India, fast approaching.

The focus will be firmly on Q1 FY26 earnings from major corporates, which are expected to give a clearer picture of sectoral performance.

Source : Freepik

India’s stock markets are gearing up for a packed and potentially volatile week, as investors weigh a series of domestic and international developments. Analysts say the direction of equities will largely be determined by a combination of quarterly earnings from heavyweight companies, the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, and the movement of foreign institutional investors (FIIs).

The start of August will bring an additional layer of uncertainty, with the August 1 deadline for the suspension of Trump-era tariffs on dozens of countries, including India, fast approaching. Market watchers say any developments on this front could sharply influence trading sentiment.

Major Q1 Earnings Ahead

The focus will be firmly on Q1 FY26 earnings from major corporates, which are expected to give a clearer picture of sectoral performance. Key names lined up this week include IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints, NTPC, Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, Sun Pharma, ITC, Bharat Electronics Ltd, and Coal India.

“The scheduled expiry of the July derivatives contracts may add further volatility to the markets,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, reported PTI.

“As the earnings season progresses, results from heavyweights such as IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints, NTPC, Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, Sun Pharma, ITC, and others will be tracked for insights on sectoral resilience and corporate performance,” he added.

Global Cues and Domestic Indicators

Investors will also be keeping a close watch on macroeconomic data releases, including Industrial Production (IIP) and the HSBC Manufacturing PMI on August 1, along with monthly auto sales figures. Globally, attention is fixed on the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision and GDP growth data, which could sway FIIs and, in turn, domestic markets.

The rupee’s movement against the dollar and fluctuations in crude oil prices will also play a role in shaping sentiment.

Last week, the BSE Sensex slipped 294.64 points, or 0.36 per cent, while the Nifty fell 131.4 points, or 0.52 per cent, extending the market’s losing streak to four weeks – the longest for the Nifty since October 2024.

“Investor sentiment remained weak, primarily due to the absence of strong domestic triggers, tepid corporate earnings for the June quarter, and persistent selling by FIIs,” said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, added: “We expect markets to remain in consolidation mode amid continued uncertainty around the India-US trade deal, a mixed Q1 FY26 earnings season so far and intensifying FII outflows.”