Smartphone Shipments: Counterpoint Lowers 2025 Forecast Amid Tariff Uncertainty; Apple & Huawei Key Players

However, most regions will still likely see growth, except North America and China, according to Counterpoint Research's latest Market Outlook Smartphone Shipment Forecast Report.

Price increases from cost pass-throughs remain a key focal point, although the tariff situation remains fluid and unpredictable.

Source : Freepik

Market intelligence research firm Counterpoint Research has lowered global smartphone shipment forecast for 2025. It has revised down its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9 per cent year-on-year from 4.2 per cent, citing uncertainties surrounding US tariffs.

However, most regions will still likely see growth, except North America and China, according to Counterpoint Research's latest Market Outlook Smartphone Shipment Forecast Report.

Price increases from cost pass-throughs remain a key focal point, although the tariff situation remains fluid and unpredictable. Commenting on the revised forecast, Associate Director Liz Lee commented, "All eyes are on Apple and Samsung because of their exposure to the US market. Although tariffs have played a role in our forecast revisions, we are also factoring in weakened demand not just in North America but across Europe and parts of Asia."

Lee added, "We still expect positive 2025 shipment growth for Apple driven by the iPhone 16 series' strong performance in Q1 2025." Moreover, premiumisation trends remain supportive across emerging markets like India, Southeast Asia and Gulf countries - these are long-term tailwinds for iPhones, according to Lee.
Counterpoint Research's current forecasts assume a relatively stable tariff environment through 2025, although the escalating rhetoric and uncertainty around trade policy could significantly impact manufacturer's pricing strategies, supply chain planning, and, ultimately, consumer demand.

Commenting on projections for global smartphone shipment growth in 2025, Associate Director Ethan Qi said, "The bright spot this year - again - will likely be Huawei. We are seeing an easing around sourcing bottlenecks for key components at least through the rest of the year, which should help Huawei grab substantial share in the mid-to-lower-end segments at home." 

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