Will Gold Break Out In August? All Eyes On Trade Talks, Fed Signals And Festive Demand

Traders will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech and global PMI data from major economies, including the US, UK and Eurozone.

With the August 1 deadline coming closer, uncertainty around trade talks is likely to support gold's safe-haven demand.

Source : PTI

Gold prices are likely to remain range-bound in the coming week as investors await clarity on global trade negotiations, upcoming US macroeconomic data and signals from the Federal Reserve, analysts said.

Traders will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech and global PMI data from major economies, including the US, UK and Eurozone.

The European Central Bank's interest rate decision will also be closely tracked for cues on the bullion price trajectory, they said.

Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services, said that in the week ahead, focus will remain on the trade negotiation outcome, Fed official speeches, US macro data, including housing market, weekly initial claims, and durable goods orders.

"Gold prices are seen consolidating in a range over the past couple of weeks amid a lack of fresh triggers and recovery in the US Dollar in the given period," Mer said, adding that downside in bullion looks limited as focus remains on the trade negotiations between the US and its trading partners, such as India and China.

With the August 1 deadline coming closer, uncertainty around trade talks is likely to support gold's safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, domestic festive demand from August to October is expected to further aid prices, he said.

Last week, the precious metal futures for August delivery rose Rs 200 or 0.2 per cent on the Multi Commodity Exchange.

Prathamesh Mallya, DVP-Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said gold has rallied by about 2 per cent over the past 10 days in the overseas markets, moving to around USD 3,350 per ounce.

"The positive momentum in gold has been driven by the US President's tariff actions on BRICS nations and possible duties on the EU, increasing investor demand for safe-haven assets," he said.

Jateen Trivedi, Analyst at LKP Securities, said, "US Dollar's strength last week kept gains in gold limited, rupee weakness is likely to cushion downside pressure in the domestic markets. Overall, gold is likely to remain volatile in the near term".

According to NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity & CRM at Ventura, "If the proper catalysts, such as weaker US dollar, geopolitical risks, robust investor demand, continued central bank purchases materialise, gold could gain another 4-8 per cent in the second half after a strong 26 per cent rise in the first half of 2025".

Last week, silver futures for September delivery hit a record high of Rs 1,15,136 per kilogram on the MCX.

"Silver is maturing from the 'poor man's gold' to a strategic metal for smart investors. With supply deficits in the world deepening and demand from EVs, solar, and electronics increasing, fundamentals are in place for a major rally.

"The gold-to-silver ratio of around 90X indicates space for dramatic catch-up. A weakening dollar, persistent inflation, and surging ETF flows are supporting silver's attractiveness," Sandip Raichura, CEO of Retail Broking and Distribution & Director, PL Capital – Prabhudas Lilladher, said. 

(This report has been published as part of the auto-generated syndicate wire feed. Apart from the headline, no editing has been done in the copy by ABP Live.)