Women Votes In MP To SC-ST Seats In Chhattisgarh: Why Congress Lost So Badly In Hindi Heartland

The scoreline for the Congress is 0-3 against the BJP in the three Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Source : PTI

State Election Results 2023: The scoreline for the Congress is 0-3 against the BJP as it lost the three Hindi heartland states, and 1-1 against regional parties as it won Telangana and lost Mizoram. Overall, the Congress party’s score is 1 out of 5 in the state elections, with a loss of one state as it was in power in two states.

So why did the Congress lose in Hindi-speaking states but won Telugu-speaking Telangana.

Key Findings

• Congress lost all the three states where it ran a presidential-style campaign — Rajasthan (Ashok Gehlot), MP (Kamal Nath) and Chhattisgarh (Bhupesh Baghel). 
• It won in the only state where it contested on a combined leadership basis (Telangana).
• Congress lost the states where it was confident of victory, and won the state where it was trailing as per initial estimates. 
• Congress lost all the states where the central leadership's involvement was minimal. 
• Congress won the only state where rebel management was best. In Telangana, it managed to keep 9 of the 11 rebels out of the fray.

Let's look at one key data point that explains the Congress' victory and loss in these states. 

Rajasthan 

In Rajasthan, the Congress tally fell by 33 seats — from 99 in 2018 to 66 in 2023. The party lost heavily in the 75 constituencies dominated by Jat and Gujjar communities. The BJP was leading by 6% among Jats and 4% among Gujjars. A section of Gujjars were unhappy with Sachin Pilot not being declared the chief minister face. A section of Jats saw chances of Jat leader Satish Poonia becoming the CM, but there was no such Jat face in the Congress.

Of these 75 seats, Congress had won 42 in 2018. The count came down to half, i.e. 21, in 2023. These 21 Jat-Gujjar seats account for two-thirds of the drop in the Congress party’s overall tally. BJP won 47 of these seats in 2023, up 24 from 2018, grabbing all of the grand old party’s losses. 

Seats Dominated Or Influenced By Jat & Gujjar Communities  

	2018	2023
INC	42	21
BJP	23	47
OTH	10	7

Source: ECI, Author’s Calculations

Madhya Pradesh

In MP, the BJP recorded 48.5% vote share and the Congress 40.4%, a lead of 8.1%. Due to the Laadli Behna scheme and an emotional bonding that Shivraj Chouhan has established with the female voters over the last 18 years as CM, 50% of women voters backed the BJP, as per Axis My India exit poll, while only 40% backed the Congress. 

BJP enjoyed a lead of 10% among women voters, which translates into a vote share of 5% (10% x 50% of population). So, Laadli Behnas gave a 5% lead to 'Mama', as Shivraj is popularly known, out of the 8% overall lead of BJP, queering the pitch for a record victory. While Congress was leading among the SC-ST male population, more women from the community backed the BJP. 

Chhattisgarh

In Chhattisgarh, 39 out of the House strength of 90 are SC-ST seats — 29 ST and 10 SC. The Congress has been sweeping ST seats largely concentrated in southern and northern Chhattisgarh. This time, the BJP managed to turn the tables by winning a maximum of these reserved seats.

SC-ST Reserved Seats

	2018	2023
INC	32	17
BJP	5	21
OTH	2	1

Source: ECI

The Congress party’s overconfidence, issue of religious conversion, free ration distribution, tribal outreach of 24,000 crore by Modi, all contributed to its loss. 

Telangana

In Telangana, the Congress had realised it was weak in urban pockets, plus there was a quadrangular contest in these 41 seats. So it shifted its focus on 78 rural seats where there was visible economic pain, and its guarantees worked. 

It exploited the rural-urban divide painting KCR as anti-poor and pro-rich who failed to deliver on housing, unemployment allowance and KG to PG schemes as he focussed only on the upliftment of Hyderabad. The Congress won 85% of its state-wide tally from rural areas, sweeping 70% of the rural seats. Its guarantees seem to have resonated only in Telangana. 

2023 Performance of Parties: 

	Urban	Rural
BRS	20	19
INC	9	55
BJP	5	3
AIMIM	7	0
OTH	0	1

Source: ECI

The party needs to take lessons from its Telangana victory and apply its template to other state elections where it is in opposition. It should learn lessons from the states it lost, where it was in power, and prepare accordingly for the next election cycle.

The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.

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