iPhone Shipments In 2024 May Fall By 15 Per Cent, Predicts Ming-Chi Kuo

The TFI Securities anlyst predicted a decline of 10 per cent-15 per cent in shipments for the iPhone 15 and the upcoming iPhone 16 series compared to 2023 figures.

Kuo also predicted that Apple would not launch new iPhone models with significant design changes and the more comprehensive GenAI ecosystem.

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Famed Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's recent supply chain survey paints a cautious outlook for Apple iPhone shipments in 2024. Apple has reduced its orders for semiconductor components from suppliers by as much as 15 per cent. The TFI Securities anlyst predicted a decline of 10 per cent-15 per cent in shipments for the iPhone 15 and the upcoming iPhone 16 series compared to 2023 figures.

"iPhone 15 series and new iPhone 16 series shipments will decline by 10–15% YoY in 1H24 and 2H24, respectively (compared to iPhone 14 series shipments in 1H23 and iPhone 15 series shipments in 2H23, respectively)," Kuo wrote in a Medium post.

Capitalising on robust demand fueled by the extensive integration of GenAI features, Samsung, on the other hand, has increased the shipment projections for the Galaxy S24 series this year by 5 per cent–10 per cent. In contrast, Apple has revised downward the shipment forecast for the iPhone 15 in the first half of 2024.

Structural Changes To Lead To Fall In iPhone Shipments

Structural challenges, such as a shift in high-end mobile phone design trends and ongoing shipment declines in the Chinese market, are expected to contribute to a substantial drop in iPhone shipments this year. The evolving high-end mobile phone design paradigm incorporates AI (GenAI) and foldable devices. The primary factors contributing to the Chinese market's decline are Huawei's resurgence and a growing inclination among high-end users to choose foldable phones as their preferred option for replacing their smartphones.

"The iPhone faces structural challenges that will lead to a significant decline in shipments in 2024, including the emergence of a new paradigm in high-end mobile phone design and the continued decline in shipments in the Chinese market," Kuo noted.

Kuo also predicted that Apple would not launch new iPhone models with significant design changes and the more comprehensive GenAI ecosystem, or applications until 2025 and that will likely harm Apple’s iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth.