Why India Should Join Afghan Peace Talks To Maintain Its Presence & Mitigate Pak-Influence

India needs to adapt its strategy to join table from very beginning for the sake of its own concerns. It is advisable for India to join Afghan peace process and talk to Taliban so as to mitigate influence of Pakistan.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Afghanistan President Dr. Mohammad Ashraf Ghani at Hyderabad House in New Delhi. (File Photo/ Getty)

New Delhi: Since the signing of milestone peace deal between the United States and the Taliban on February 29, 2020, Afghanistan seems to have taken steps towards peace and ending the decade old conflict.  The power-sharing arrangement to end feud between top leaders, withdrawal of US troops faster than agreed speed, progress on the prisoners’ release both by Government and Taliban, decrease in violence after surprise cease-fire by radicals and efforts being made by conflicting sides to initiate Afghan peace talks - make world to hope for intra-Afghan dialogue, envisaged in US-Taliban deal and finally the peace in Afghanistan. It is evident that the US signed deal with Taliban as the possibility of an America-led military victory appeared distant and the negotiation with Taliban became the only possible route to pave way for early exit from Afghanistan. The deal transformed militant Taliban movement into an influential legal political force. If the intra-Afghan talks happen the way the world expects and the resultant agreement is implemented, the Taliban could play larger role in Afghan politics. India’s position in this present state of affairs seems undesirable. The official Indian position on reconciliation supports ‘an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled process for lasting peace in the country.’ As of now, the process is neither Afghan-led nor Afghan-controlled but rather under control of US. The US deal with the Taliban favours Pakistan while leaving India emasculated. Obviously, the agreement privileges both the Taliban, which may ultimately enter into some power-sharing arrangement in Kabul, and Pakistan, which takes credit of supporting peace process by making Taliban leaders to come to the negotiating table. Pakistan supports Taliban considering it a bulwark against India in Afghanistan, while India has always opposed Taliban as proxy of Pakistan. India’s goal in Afghanistan is to mitigate the strategic influence of Pakistan so that Afghan land cannot be used as safe haven for anti-India terrorist groups. In addition to large investments, India has been the largest construction partner of Afghanistan. For instance, India financed the Chabahar port in Iran near Afghanistan border to turn it into an access corridor to central Asia in order to circumvent Pakistan. However, the strategic value of Afghanistan for India depends on the presence of US military in the country. With American withdrawal, India’s strategic investment looks to be mostly sunk cost. Within a month of signing of the US-Taliban deal, India temporarily withdrew its India-based staff from two of its four consulates –Jalalabad and Herat, ostensibly because of increasing Coronavirus cases but more likely due to escalating insecurity among Indian diplomats to function there. The move leaves Pakistan under impression that the consulates have been shut, prompting it to celebrate as its victory. With the American exit, it is believed that Pakistan would have significant influence over events in Afghanistan, effectively alleviating its strategic vulnerability of being encircled by hostile Afghanistan and presence of Indian Consulates in the east and south region. The enhancement of Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan will not only contribute to the Chinese influence but also potentially improve the negotiation power of both China and Pakistan vis-à-vis Washington. Currently, owing to its influence over Taliban, Pakistan seems to be a major player. Russian Special Envoy for Pakistan, Zamir Kabulov believes that Pakistan should have a primary role in Afghan peace process. On June 7, US Special Representative for Afghan Reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad met with Pak Army Chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa in Islamabad and expressed his appreciation for Pakistan’s role in bringing the Taliban to negotiation table. Later on June 9, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani recognized and appreciated the role being played by Pakistan for Afghan peace process. For the first time, Pakistan has appointed its Special Envoy for Afghanistan to look over the peace process on daily basis. For quite some time, the US has been pushing India to change its stance and engage with Taliban directly as part of Afghanistan peace process.  During his recent visit to India, Trump reportedly provided Prime Minister Narendra Modi with certain “guarantees” about Taliban reconciliation. On May 7, Zalmay Khalilzad during his meeting with External Affairs Minister S Jaishanker, NSA Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary Harsh V Shringla, sought India’s direct engagement with Taliban for peace in Afghanistan. However, according to top level sources, India will talk to Taliban only when it recognizes a democratic set-up by Afghan government. On the other hand, Taliban, which is expanding its presence across the country and is in strongest position than it has ever been in last 18 years, has expressed willingness to have positive relations with India. Taliban spokesman for its Political Commission in Doha said that the Taliban have no agenda beyond Afghanistan’s borders. India’s policy of distancing from Taliban would help Pakistan to have more leverage in Kabul and also to boost its image at the international platform.  It will also annoy US, Russia and China which want India to play a role on Afghanistan peace process. Moreover, Afghan leaders, intellectuals and even general public which want India to help them in solving crisis would be disappointed. Moreover, annoying Taliban who have expressed willingness to cooperate with India in development of Afghanistan would be detrimental to India’s interests there as after peace talks they will definitely be part of government. In a Pashtun dominated country, it would be next to impossible to continue the presence without approval of Taliban. Therefore, if India wants to remain there, it will have to take tough decisions. India needs to be involved in both international and national dialogues. Experts agree that India waited too long for peace and despite enormous leverage in Kabul it pushed itself to irrelevance. India’s official position that it will work through Ghani-led government has, till now, kept India out of peace process. It would be prudent for India to broaden its approach and include certain sections of Taliban, particularly who are not pro-Pakistan. It may be noted that Taliban are supported and influenced by Pakistan but still not controlled by it. Now, since the Afghanistan government has softened its stance towards Taliban and agreed to hold negotiations with the group shortly in Doha, India need to adapt its strategy to join table from very beginning for the sake of its own concerns. It is advisable for India to join Afghan peace process and talk to Taliban so as to mitigate influence of Pakistan. Both Afghan government and Taliban have done all preparation to jump-start negotiations. Taliban leadership would probably not be interested in listening to Indian concerns and the current government dispensation is not in capacity to mould Taliban in our favour. Thus, leaving the reconciliation process primarily to an unstable administration in Kabul will do little for India’s long-term interests in Afghanistan.