IMD predicts normal monsoon this year

Monsoon 2018 Forecast: India is likely to witness a normal monsoon this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.

India is likely to witness a normal monsoon this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. Photo: AFP

NEW DELHI: India is likely to witness a normal monsoon this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. The monsoon will be 97 per cent of long period average (LPA), which is normal for the season, IMD Director General K G Ramesh told a press conference. He said that there was "very less probability" of a deficient monsoon. The date of onset of monsoon will be announced in the middle of May. The monsoon is considered normal if the average rainfall is between 96 to 104 per cent of long period average. Anything less than 90 per cent of LPA is termed a 'deficient' monsoon, and 90-96 per cent of the same is considered 'below normal'. The four-month monsoon season provides about 70 per cent of the country's annual rainfall. "Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 97% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm," the IMD said in a release. "Forecast also suggests maximum probability for normal monsoon rainfall (96-104% of LPA) and low probability for deficient rainfall during the season," it further said. IMD will issue the update in early June, 2018 as a part of the second stage forecast. Along with the updated forecast, separate forecasts for the monthly (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued. (With inputs from PTI)