Tripura, Meghalaya Verdict, Bengal Bypoll Results Show Why Mamata Banerjee Must Rethink TMC Expansion Plan

File photo of Trinamool supremo and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee during an election rally in Tripura capital Agartala. ( Image Source :PTI )

The Trinamool Congress, led by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, failed to win any seats in the elections in Tripura, fared poorly in Meghalaya with just five seats, and lost the Sagardighi byelection in Bengal to the Congress. Banerjee's expansion strategy in the Northeast came across as arbitrary and poorly thought-out given the violence and allegations of corruption against the top leadership of her party. It is a good time for Banerjee to accept the fact that TMC cannot have an impact outside of Bengal at this time, and the need of the hour is for her to give Bengal her full attention because the recent election results have provided her with plenty of warnings.

Disappointing Performance In Tripura

In Tripura, Mamata Banerjee's TMC received an even lower vote share than NOTA. After the party's electoral victory in West Bengal in 2021, Banerjee focused on Tripura. Tripura has predominantly Bengali-speaking population. Abhishek Banerjee, the general secretary of the party and Mamata Banerjee's nephew, made the decision that TMC will fight Tripura with all its might. Abhishek asserted on each of his visits to the state that they will defeat the BJP. However, the party proved to be ineffective in the state. 

Abhishek Banerjee relied heavily on I-PAC, the election management organisation founded by poll strategist Prashant Kishor, from Day One. As soon as it arrived in Tripura, the TMC's primary objective was to recruit disillusioned party leaders of prominence. From the BJP to the Congress, the TMC targeted and poached leaders from every party. However, it was unsuccessful, and the majority of these party leaders left. According to party insiders, there was widespread discontent with the TMC due to the ongoing corruption allegations against its leaders. 

The party's efforts to build an organisation in the state were ineffective from the very beginning. The majority of TMC leaders in Tripura were Bengali leaders with no knowledge of the local terrain. According to the party insiders, Abhishek believed that TMC would form an alliance with Pradyot Bikarm Manikya Deb Barma's TIPRA Motha, but this did not happen. Prior to the assembly elections, the TMC unsuccessfully attempted to recruit prominent figures from the BJP and the Left. In such a situation, the party drastically scaled back its election campaign, fielding only 28 candidates. The TMC did not even inform the local leadership about the candidate selection. 

Mamata Banerjee had attempted the same strategies in Goa but was unsuccessful, and in Tripura, despite a sizeable Bengali population, the TMC was powerless. This demonstrates that TMC has little credibility beyond Bengal, and the entire expansion plan in Tripura relied heavily on corporate ground management. The party never kept its word to the indigenous leaders of Tripura and attempted to wrest campaign control functioning from Bengal.

Hype But Not Much Gain In Meghalaya

With approximately 14% of the vote, Mamata Banerjee's TMC won approximately five seats in the 60-member assembly in Meghalaya. Mamata Banerjee first launched her venture in Meghalaya in 2012, but TMC won its first assembly elections in the state in 2018. The organisation was never in good shape because the party lacked formidable figures. In November 2021, however, former chief minister Mukul Sangma and 12 of the 17 Congress MLAs defected from the party and joined the TMC in an overnight coup. The TMC is now the main opposition party in the Meghalaya legislature. 

Mamata Banerjee's TMC fought the Meghalaya assembly elections on the strength of Mukul Sangma's popularity alone. There is no question that the TMC performed well in its first election in a large state like Meghalaya. However, the party was unable to establish a strong organisation in the state, resulting in an excessive dependence on Sangma. The TMC anticipated that it would become the kingmaker, but a lack of organisation and excessive control by Bengali leaders rendered the party ineffective. Mukul Sangma contested from two seats, Songsak and Tikrilla, but won only one. As the Garo Hills are a Sangma stronghold, the TMC believed the party would perform well there. Charles Pyngrope, a well-known Khasi, was unable to contribute much to the TMC, but he won. The majority of Sangma's family members, with the exception of his daughter, also lost the election. 

The TMC's election campaign in Meghalaya was extremely loud and aggressive, aided by I-PAC. The party managed the media in such a way that everywhere the topic of conversation was the TMC, but the party was technically nowhere on the ground. This is another instance of the TMC's inappropriate strategy. The party's reliance on  IPAC to manage elections is excessive. According to a recent report, the TMC is currently the second-wealthiest political party, after the BJP. Similar to the Goa assembly elections, the TMC spent a great deal of money on the Meghalaya assembly elections, but the outcome was quite different. It is also important to realise that the TMC lacked an effective political strategy in Meghalaya, which is why they were unable to form an alliance with other parties such as the UDP, VPP, or the Congress. Significantly, Mukul Sangma's entire coup and the destruction of the Congress have wreaked havoc on the grand old party. In the 2018 assembly elections, Congress was the largest party in Meghalaya, as it was in previous elections. However, the NPP formed the government through an alliance with the BJP and other parties. In the previous election, Congress received approximately 28% of the vote. In this election, this vote share decreased to 13%, while the TMC gained approximately 13% of the vote. The TMC's success came at the expense of the Congress.

Warning From Sagardighi

Considering the results of the elections in Meghalaya and Tripura, it is clear that Mamata Banerjee's expansion strategy is not working. The loss in the Sagardighi assembly byelection was the most damaging to the TMC. This assembly constituency was a TMC stronghold, and Banerjee's party has held this seat in previous elections. This time, however, the Congress, aided by the Left, succeeded, and Byron Biswas was elected as MLA. Biswas won by 22,980 votes. 

This is a significant warning for Mamata Banerjee, as this is the first time she has suffered a loss in an election, following the shadow of corruption and the rise of violence in West Bengal. It is important to note that both Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee campaigned in the area for their candidates. It is also important to note that the constituency contains 63 percent Muslim votes and more than 10 percent tribal votes. Muslims and tribals have been Banerjee's strongest voting bloc since the TMC's inception. 

The outcome of this assembly byelection indicates that discontent among Muslims and tribals is growing. Prior to Mamata Banerjee's ascension to power, the Muslims of West Bengal were a reliable voting bloc for the Left. However, after she came to power, they shifted entirely to the TMC. The results of the byelections indicate that the Muslim vote is shifting back to the Left-Congress coalition for a variety of reasons. In the past year and a half, there have been numerous attacks on minority groups. Recent recruitment scams have affected all sectors of society, and TMC has reasons to be concerned about the election outcome. 

This is a crucial point for Mamata Banerjee and her political career. After winning the Bengal assembly elections in 2021, Banerjee positioned herself as the unifier of the opposition parties. She also maintained that her objective is to grow the TMC and play a significant role in the general elections of 2024. However, recent events indicate that Banerjee's primary focus should be on putting her own house in order. In Bengal, the condition of the party is deteriorating, and Mamata Banerjee must immediately seize control of the situation and work tirelessly to undo the damage caused by recent corruption and irregularities. Mamata Banerjee's politics would perish if she denied the reality of the situation in Bengal. Banerjee should be concerned about the early indications of discontent among Muslims, because if this voter base shifts to the Left and the Congress, the TMC will face a formidable challenge in the upcoming elections.

The author is a columnist and doctoral research scholar in media & politics.

[The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP Network Pvt. Ltd.]