Operation Ajit Pawar Is Less About Maharashtra And More About Lok Sabha 2024

CM Eknath Shinde congratulates his newly sworn-in deputy Ajit Pawar at Raj Bhavan in Mumbai on July 2, 2023, as the other Deputy CM, Devendra Fadnavis, looks on. ( Image Source :PTI )

The majority figure in the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly, which is required to form the government, is 145 out of a total of 288 seats. Until last Sunday, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine government, led by Eknath Shinde, had more than enough seats to maintain stability (BJP 105+ SS 40+ Independents 10). There was no need to seek the support of Ajit Pawar and his group, who rebelled from the NCP. So, why did the BJP engineer "Operation Ajit Pawar"? The answer lies in the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha election.

This operation is less about the government in Maharashtra and more about securing victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Maharashtra is the second-largest contributor, after Uttar Pradesh, to the Lok Sabha strength. To form government at the Centre, any party or alliance must win the maximum number of seats from Maharashtra, which has a total of 48 seats.

In 2019, the BJP was unable to form the government in Maharashtra as its alliance partner, Shiv Sena, joined hands with the Congress and the NCP, resulting in a new triparty alliance taking power. Though Uddhav Thackeray of united Shiv Sena became the chief minister, NCP chief Sharad Pawar held significant influence over the government. During the two-and-a-half years when the MVA government was in power, Sharad Pawar capitalised on the opportunity to strengthen his party.

The NCP's aggressive stance worried the BJP leadership, indicating that the NCP might perform well in the 2024 general elections. In the 2019 Parliamentary elections, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won 41 Lok Sabha seats, but it was uncertain if the NDA would be able to secure a similar number of seats from Maharashtra in 2024. Therefore, it was crucial for the BJP to undermine the opposition.

To weaken the opposition, the BJP initially instigated a rebellion within the Shiv Sena in June 2022, resulting in the party splitting into two factions. Eknath Shinde, from the rebel faction, was appointed CM, despite the BJP having a larger number of MLAs. A year later, a similar rebellion was orchestrated within the NCP.

By splitting these two parties, the BJP not only weakened the opposition but also gained the support of several influential Maratha leaders. The Maratha community holds a significant role in Maharashtra politics, and the BJP previously lacked charismatic Maratha leaders. Now, with the backing of Maratha leaders like Eknath Shinde, Ajit Pawar, and others, the BJP has enhanced its position. In fact, the NCP is known as a party dominated by Marathas.

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