Tamil Nadu ABP C-Voter Exit Poll 2021: Stalin's DMK Likely To Sweep Election With Clear Majority

Tamil Nadu ABP C-Voter Exit Poll 2021: The result for the 243 Assembly seats in Tamil Nadu will be declared on May 2nd. Watch the ABP-CVoter Exit Polls to know what is likely to happen in the D-Day

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Tamil Nadu ABP C-Voter Exit Poll 2021: The Tamil Nadu assembly elections witnessed a massive tussle mainly between the ruling AIADMK and MK Stalin-led DMK. The AIADMK is contesting this election in alliance with the BJP while the DMK has partnered with Congress. Tamil Nadu witnessed single-phase polling on April 6th amid the rising Covid cases and the state registered a huge voter turnout of  72.78%. 

While, the results for the 234-member Tamil Nadu legislative assembly will be announced on May 2nd, ABP News along with CVoter conducted an Exit poll to understand the mood of the state.

After polling, the data received shows a Stalin-led DMK emerging victorious with a clear majority bagging the seats in the range of 160-172. The incumbent AIADMK- led alliance is expected to be restricted to 58 to 70 seats in the state. In 2016 Assembly elections, AIADMK – led alliance had emerged victorious on 134 seats and DMK –led coalition managed to corner 98 seats. 

The magic figure is 118, the minimum seats required for a party or a coalition to stake claim for the government formation.

PARTY-WISE PROJECTED RANGE OF SEATS
Alliance Seats: Tamil Nadu	From	To	Seats
UPA (DMK+Congress+Others)	160	to	172
NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others)	58	to	70
MNM	0	to	2
AMMK	0	to	2
Others	0	to	3
Total	234

 

REGION-WISE PROJECTED RANGE OF SEATS
REGIONS	AIADMK+		DMK+		AMMK
Range of seats	From	To	From	To	From	To
Chola Nadu in Kaveri Basin	7	9	32	34	0	1
Greater Chennai Region	3	5	11	13	0	0
Kongu Nadu in West	17	19	33	35	0	0
Pallava Nadu in North	8	10	36	38	0	1
Pandiya Nadu in South	21	23	33	35	0	2
Puddichery Region	2	4	15	17	0	0
Grand Total	58	70	160	172	0	4

Tamil Nadu ABP C-Voter Exit Poll: Vote share predictions

Translated to vote share, the ABP-CVoter Exit Polls has revealed that Stalin's DMK is the first choice for people in Tamil Nadu. According to the survey data, the vote share of DMK and alliance partners will witness a jump of 7.9% from 38.8% in 2016 to 46.7% in 2021, while the vote share of AIADMK – led coalition will plummet by 8.7% from 43.7% in 2016 to 35% in 2021. Other outfits will continue to remain marginal political players in the state

PARTY-WISE VOTE SHARE
Party Alliance	2016 Results	2021 Projection	Swing
UPA (DMK+Congress+Others)	38.8	46.7	7.9
NDA (AIADMK+BJP+Others)	43.7	35	-8.7
MNM	0	4.1	4.1
AMMK	0	3.8	3.8
Others	17.5	14.5	-3
Total	100	100	0

 

REGION-WISE VOTE SHARE
REGIONS	AIADMK+	DMK+	AMMK	OTH	Total
Chola Nadu in Kaveri Basin	33.1	51.8	4.3	10.08	100
Greater Chennai Region	34.7	40.6	3.8	20.9	100
Kongu Nadu in West	38.6	43.9	3.2	14.3	100
Pallava Nadu in North	31.5	51.6	2.7	14.2	100
Pandiya Nadu in South	39	40.4	4.6	15.7	100
Puddichery Region	27.9	50.8	4.3	17	100
Grand Total	35	46.7	3.8	14.5	0

 

REGION-WISE VOTE SWING: 2021
SWING	AIADMK+	DMK+	AMMK	OTH	Total
Chola Nadu in Kaveri Basin	-11.6	12.1	4.3	-4.8	0
Greater Chennai Region	-10.9	-1.2	3.8	8.3	0
Kongu Nadu in West	-8.2	7	3.2	-2	0
Pallava Nadu in North	-8.7	12.4	2.7	-6.4	0
Pandiya Nadu in South	-6.9	1.2	4.6	1.1	0
Puddichery Region	-7.4	14.1	4.3	-11	0
Grand Total	-8.7	7.9	3.8	-3	0

This election is an important one for Tamil Nadu as this is the first assembly poll to happen without the towering presence of titans M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa. The results this time around will reveal if AIADMK can stand on its own in the absence of “Amma” and whether Karunanidhi’s son Stalin has been able to inherit the wide following of his father.

(The present opinion poll / survey was conducted by C Voter Services Pvt. Ltd. The methodology used is Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews [CATI] for Opinion Polls and Face to face methodology for Exit Poll and the sample size for the same is 2,30,500 (sum of all opinion and exit polls in all states); the survey was carried out during the period January 1, 2021, until the end of elections in the five states. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of +/-3% at Macro level and +/-5% at Micro Level and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria / aspects and was broadly based upon answers provided by the respondents during the interviews.)