OPINION | Xi-Modi Meeting: Meeting Centenary Targets

India and China aim to become developed nations by 2047 and 2049. While China has outpaced India economically, closer cooperation and faster reforms could help both achieve their development goals.

India and China aim to become developed nations by 2047 and 2049.

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Key points generated by AI, verified by newsroom

• India and China aim for developed nation status by mid-century.
• China currently leads; India must achieve substantial per capita growth.
• Bilateral cooperation could reshape the global economic order significantly.

As China and India approach their centenary celebrations in nearly two decades, both nations aspire to establish themselves as modern socialist developed societies, with India aiming for Viksit Bharat. The recent confirmation from the IMF regarding India's growth trajectory, marked by a 7.84% GDP increase, likely bolstered Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's confidence during his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit in New Delhi. Given that a developed China requires a robust market to sustain its economy, it is in China's interest to see India achieve its development goals sooner, fostering mutual prosperity.

India-China Cooperation Could Reshape Global Economic Order

The metaphor of the elephant and dragon dancing together encapsulates the potential for collaboration between these two Asian giants. If both countries can effectively address their boundary and territorial disputes, they could significantly enhance their bilateral relations and play a pivotal role in global forums. The meeting on September 12 between President Xi and Prime Minister Modi holds the promise of reshaping the world economic order, as their cooperation could counterbalance the hegemonic tendencies of the United States.

As these leaders convene in New Delhi, the international community will closely evaluate their commitment to achieving their respective developmental aspirations by the mid-21st century. With a history of friendly exchanges spanning over 2,000 years, these neighbouring nations, often viewed as rivals, are on a shared journey toward realizing their visions of modern socialist development and a developed India. The progress of both countries will be of great interest not only to their citizens but also to the world at large, as they strive to attain developed country status.

China’s Development Gains And India’s Challenges

Observers of China cannot overlook the remarkable advancements the nation has made across various sectors, which paint a picture of a developed country. Despite this impressive growth, China continues to identify itself as a developing nation. In contrast, India has made significant strides in areas such as space exploration, nuclear technology, engineering, agriculture, and other scientific domains. However, the stark infrastructural disparities and the visible presence of impoverished communities on the streets highlight the challenges India faces, indicating that China has outpaced India in numerous developmental metrics.

The next two decades will mark pivotal moments in the histories of both India and China. India is set to commemorate the centenary of its independence in 2047, while China will celebrate the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China in 2049. This significant transition began in 1949 when the Communist Party, under the leadership of Mao Zedong, overthrew the Guomintang party led by Chiang Kai-shek, thereby founding New China. Following a period of sluggish economic growth until the early 1980s, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping introduced the Four Modernizations program, which catalyzed rapid economic development. Although India was nearly on par with China until the early 1990s, it embarked on a new phase of economic reform that has propelled it to become the sixth-largest economy in the world. Nevertheless, India's GDP per capita remains low, placing it among the more economically disadvantaged nations.

India’s Road To Viksit Bharat By 2047

For India to transition into a developed nation by 2047, a substantial increase in per capita income is essential. Projections indicate that the per capita income, estimated at $2,813 in 2026, must rise to approximately $18,000 by 2047. This ambitious goal necessitates an average annual nominal growth rate of 9.25 percent over the next two decades, representing a more than six-fold increase. Currently, China's GDP stands at an impressive $19.5 trillion, which is nearly 4.5 times greater than India's GDP of $4.15 trillion. This stark contrast underscores the significant economic challenges India must address to achieve its developmental aspirations within the specified timeframe.

President Xi has made a significant commitment to transform China into a "great modern socialist country" by the centenary of the People's Republic in 2049, aiming to surpass the United States in both military and economic strength. Since assuming leadership of the Communist Party in late 2012, Xi has emphasized the "China Dream," which envisions the nation as the most powerful and developed globally, with aspirations to achieve this status by the centenary of New China.

In parallel, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who took office in 2014, has articulated a vision, a decade later, for India to become a developed nation by 2047, coinciding with the 100th anniversary of India's independence. The Modi administration has set an ambitious target of transforming India into a $30 trillion economy, focusing on creating world-class infrastructure to foster sustainable growth and improve living standards for all citizens.

China’s Growth Model And India’s Development Gap

Modi's vision for a "Viksit Bharat" emphasizes a shift from welfare to inclusive prosperity, aiming to establish a high-income, high-opportunity, and high-capability society. Historically, in 1980, China and India had comparable economies, but China's economic reforms under Deng Xiaoping catalyzed rapid growth, while India maintained a more state-controlled approach. As China approaches its centenary, it faces challenges such as an aging population and the need for sustainable growth, which will be critical in realizing its ambitious goals.

China's economic landscape presents a dual narrative of challenges and opportunities, particularly given its technologically adept population, emphasis on high-tech industries, and commitment to innovation. As the nation navigates its economic trajectory, it is under close observation from the global community, with forecasts for its GDP in 2050 estimated to fall between $35 trillion and $45 trillion in real terms. These projections hinge on various factors, including demographic shifts, the efficacy of policy implementation, and advancements in technology. While China is on track to reinforce its position as the world's largest economy, it is anticipated that growth rates will experience a significant slowdown, averaging between 2% and 3% annually by the 2040s. This deceleration can be attributed to an aging population, diminishing returns from capital-intensive investments, and ongoing productivity challenges.

Can India Achieve Developed-Country Status?

In contrast, India's economic aspirations are marked by a notable gap in developmental indicators when compared to China. The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook from October 2025 indicates that China's nominal GDP per capita was approximately $13,806, while India aims to achieve a GDP per capita of $18,000 by 2047. Despite the ambitious targets set forth in various vision documents, the challenge for India lies in translating these plans into tangible actions.

The key planning bodies responsible for the Viksit Bharat 2047 agenda are still preoccupied with drafting strategy papers, leaving the vision largely unfulfilled. Given the pace and work culture of Indian bureaucracy, it remains uncertain whether India can attain developed country status within the next two decades. Achieving this goal will require not only the establishment of a stable social and political environment characterized by inclusivity and bureaucratic efficiency but also the fostering of amicable relations between China and India, which can enable both nations to benefit from each other’s strengths. Such cooperation could significantly enhance the prospects for both nations to evolve into world-class societies.

(Ranjit Kumar is a senior journalist and strategic affairs analyst.)