Monsoon Progress Weakens As India Sees 28% Less Rain Than Normal

Rainfall distribution maps indicate that several parts of central, eastern and southern India have received below-normal precipitation, while only a few isolated regions experienced excess showers.

Weather models are offering some hope for the latter half of June.

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India’s southwest monsoon has lost momentum in its early phase, with the country witnessing a 28% rainfall shortfall so far this season amid unusual atmospheric conditions that are slowing the spread of rain-bearing systems.

The country recorded 34.3 mm of rainfall against the seasonal average of 47.7 mm between June 4 and June 14, as per data released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Rainfall distribution maps indicate that several parts of central, eastern and southern India have received below-normal precipitation, while only a few isolated regions have experienced excess showers.

Weather experts say the slowdown is not due to a lack of moisture but because of changing wind patterns in the upper atmosphere that are disrupting the normal monsoon flow.

Meteorologists point to the westerly jet stream -- a strong band of winds flowing high above the Earth -- which has shifted unusually far south this year. This has weakened the upper-level easterly jet that normally supports the monsoon’s progress across the subcontinent.

As a result, weather systems forming over the Bay of Bengal are struggling to move deeper inland. Without stronger atmospheric support, these systems are either weakening quickly or remaining confined to limited pockets instead of spreading widespread rainfall.

The effect is being seen across large parts of central India, eastern states and sections of the southern peninsula, where dry spells have become more frequent despite this usually being a peak phase for monsoon expansion. In contrast, a few areas in northwest India have seen scattered rainfall triggered by local weather disturbances.

The current rainfall deficit has surprised many forecasters, especially since several long-range outlooks issued earlier this year had predicted a favourable beginning to the monsoon season due to supportive oceanic conditions.

However, weather models are offering some hope for the latter half of June. Experts believe the upper-level easterly jet may strengthen after June 20, which could help revive monsoon activity and improve the movement of rain systems from the Bay of Bengal into mainland India.

Meteorologists are now closely monitoring whether atmospheric conditions begin to shift in the coming days, as the next few weeks are expected to play a crucial role in determining whether the monsoon can recover from the current deficit.