Monsoon to be 'below normal' this year, says weather report; check region-wise forecast here

Skymet, on Tuesday, released its report on Southwest Monsoon 2019 on April 3 predicting ‘below normal’ rains to the tune of 93 per cent LPA

By : ABP News Bureau | Updated at : 14 May 2019 05:15 PM (IST)

Monsoon 2019 to be below normal this year, says weather report, check region wise forecast here Monsoon to be 'below normal' this year, says weather report; check region-wise forecast here

Skymet has released a quantitative distribution report of monsoon across the four regions. (File Photo/ Getty)

0 per cent chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110 per cent of LPA)

0 per cent chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA)

30 per cent chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA)

Monsoon 2019: India’s private weather forecasting company Skymet, on Tuesday, released its report on Southwest Monsoon 2019 on April 3 predicting ‘below normal’ rains to the tune of 93 per cent (with an error margin of +/- 5 per cent) of long period average (LPA). “Monsoon will hit Kerala on June 4 with a variation of two days but this year it is likely to be below normal,” the company said in an official statement. The monsoon was also likely to be "jerky" as its progression across India would not be smooth, it said. The monsoon was likely to be "below normal" at 93 per cent, it added. The average or normal rainfall in the country is defined between 96 and 104 per cent of a 50-year average for the entire four-month monsoon season. As a sequel to pan-India forecast, Skymet has also released a quantitative distribution report of monsoon rainfall across the four regions of the country. This region-wise forecast comes with an error margin of +/- 8 per cent. Monsoon in 2019 seemed to make a timely onset, but recent predictions and reports suggest a weak start over the India subcontinent which will result in a sluggish start to Monsoon 2019. “All the four regions are going to witness lesser than normal rainfall, this season. East and Northeast India and central parts will be poorer than Northwest India and South Peninsula. Onset of Monsoon will be around June 4. It seems that initial advancement of Monsoon over Peninsular India is going to be slow,” said Skymet’s Managing Director Jatin Singh. According to Skymet.com, Monsoon 2019 probabilities for JJAS are: - 0 per cent chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110 per cent of LPA) - 0 per cent chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110 per cent of LPA) - 30 per cent chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA) - 55 per cent chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA) - 15 per cent chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 per cent of LPA) East and Northeast India The region contributes maximum amount of share and accounts for 38 per cent of Monsoon rainfall. Geographical risk remains high for Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, while marginal for Northeast India. It is likely to see below normal rains of up to 92 per cent of LPA this season. Northwest India The active Monsoon duration is the least over the region. It contributes only 17 per cent of the seasonal rainfall. The region is expected to record normal rainfall to the tune of 96 per cent of LPA. Hilly states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are likely to perform better than the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi- NCR. Central India Central India records 976 mm of Monsoon rains, contributing second highest share of 26 per cent. The region is expected to be lowest of all, with seasonal rains at 91 per cent of LPA. Odisha and Chhattisgarh are likely to be rainiest of all, while Vidarbha, Marathwada, West Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat will be poorer than normal. South Peninsula Peninsular India too remains at small risk this season, with the expected rains at 95 per cent of LPA. The regional records for 716 mm of rains accounting for 19 per cent of the total Monsoon. North Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema may see poor rainfall. Kerala and Coastal Karnataka are likely to perform better. (With inputs from skymetweather.com)

Published at : 14 May 2019 05:09 PM (IST)

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Monsoon 2019