Assam ABP C-Voter Exit Poll 2021: See-Saw Battle Between NDA & UPA; BJP+ Closer To Majority Mark
ABP-Cvoter Exit Poll 2021 Assam: In this year's election, Bharatiya Janata Party faces tough competition from the mega alliance of eight parties including Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF and the Congress.
ABP-Cvoter Exit Poll 2021 Assam: North-Eastern state Assam is set to witness a hung assembly, a survey conducted by ABP-CVoter has predicted. The ABP-Cvoter Exit Poll 2021 reveals that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and Grand Alliance are locked in a neck and neck fight in the 126-member Assam Assembly.
According to the exit poll data, BJP – led NDA is likely to retain power in a very close electoral contest in Assam. The survey data shows that despite a very close fight, after the Congress in Assam, formed a “Grand Alliance” with five parties, the coalition of opposition parties will not be able to dislodge the incumbent NDA in the state.
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ABP-C-Voter Assam Exit Poll 2021 - Seat Range
| Assam | Projected Range Of Seats | ||
| Alliance Seats: Assam | From | To | Seats |
| NDA | 58 | to | 71 |
| UPA | 53 | to | 66 |
| Others | 0 | to | 5 |
| Total | 126 | ||
According to the survey, Congress-led UPA is projected to bag around 48.8 percent vote share, a massive +17.8 percent swing to the coalition compared to 2016 election results.
The ABP News-CVoter Exit Polls, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance is touted to secure around 42.9 percent vote share in the upcoming polls, which is a +1 percent swing compared to 2016 polls. Other parties in Assam will manage to win an 8.3 percent vote share, which is a -18.8 percent swing as compared to the 2016 elections.
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ABP-C-Voter Assam Exit Poll 2021 - Vote Share %
| Assam | Party Alliance: Votes | ||
| Alliance Votes: Assam | 2016 Results | 2021 Projection | Swing |
| NDA | 41.9 | 42.9 | 1 |
| UPA | 31 | 48.8 | 17.8 |
| Others | 27.1 | 8.3 | -18.8 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 0 |
ABP-C-Voter Assam Exit Poll 2021 - Mean Value Range Of Seats
| Assam | Party Alliance: Seats | ||
| Alliance Seats: Assam | 2016 Results | 2021 Projection ( Mean Value of range) | Change |
| NDA | 74 | 65 | -9 |
| UPA | 39 | 59 | 20 |
| Others | 13 | 2 | -11 |
| Total | 126 | 126 | 0 |
For 2021 Assam Assembly elections, AIUDF contested on 14 seats, Congress party on 94 seats, Communist Party of India (Marxist) on just two-seat, and Bodoland People’s Front on 12.
From the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) contested 92 seats, United People’s Party Liberal on eight seats, and Asom Gana Parishad on 26 seats.
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ABP-C-Voter Assam Exit Poll 2021 - Region Wise Seat Range Prediction
| PROJECTED RANGE OF SEATS | |||||
| REGIONS | UPA | NDA | |||
| Range of seats | From | To | From | To | |
| BODOLAND | 7 | 9 | 9 | 11 | |
| BRACK VALLEY | 11 | 13 | 2 | 4 | |
| HILLS | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| LOWER ASSAM | 21 | 23 | 9 | 11 | |
| MIDDLE ASSAM | 8 | 10 | 4 | 6 | |
| NORTH ASSAM | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| TEA GARDEN | 6 | 8 | 28 | 30 | |
| Grand Total | 53 | 66 | 58 | 71 | |
Region wise, the survey data projects that UPA is expected to grab maximum number of seats of its share in Lower Assam, the alliance can win 21 to 23 seats in the region; NDA is expected to 9 to 11 seats here. NDA is likely to perform best in Tea Garden Area, where coalition is expected to grab 28 to 30 seats; UPA is projected to get 6 to 8 seats here.. As for other regions, in Bodoland, UPA is expected to get 7 to 9 seats; NDA is likely to 9 to 11 seats in the region. In Brack Valley, while UPA is expected to emerge winner on 11 to 13 seats, BJP is likely to corner 2 to 4 seats. In Middle Assam, UPA can grab 8 to 10 seats; NDA is projected to register victory on 4 to 6 seats. In Hills and North Assam regions, UPA is likely to get 0 to 1 and 0 to 2 seats respectively, while NDA is expected to grab 4 to 5 seats and 2 to 4 seats respectively in these two regions.
In the three-phased Assam Assembly elections for 126 constituencies, the state witnessed 79.93 per cent polling on 47 seats during the first phase on March 27 and 80.96 per cent on 39 seats during the second phase on April 1. 82.33 per cent voting was recorded in final phase
BJP-led NDA, which had won 86 of 126 seats in the 2016 Assembly election, currently rules Assam. The three-phase polls in the state were held on March 27, April 1, and 6. Assam recorded a massive 82.04 percent voter turnout.
In this year's election, Bharatiya Janata Party faces tough competition from the mega alliance of eight parties including Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF and the Congress. Official counting votes will take place on May 2.
The present opinion poll / survey was conducted by C Voter Services Pvt. Ltd. The methodology used is Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews [CATI] for Opinion Polls and Face to face methodology for Exit Poll and the sample size for the same is 2,30,500 (sum of all opinion and exit polls in all states) & the survey was carried out during the period January 1, 2021, until the end of elections in the five states. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of +/-3% at Macro level and +/-5% at Micro Level and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria / aspects and was broadly based upon answers provided by the respondents during the interviews.
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