'Failed Reunion, Fading Support': What’s Next For Raj Thackeray In Mumbai?

Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena has suffered a major setback in the BMC elections, reviving concerns over the party’s survival as Mumbai politics increasingly polarises.

The BMC defeat has intensified concerns over the possible derecognition of the MNS as a state party.

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Once seen as the ideological and rhetorical heir to Bal Thackeray, Raj Thackeray now finds himself struggling for political relevance as Mumbai’s electoral landscape continues to shift. The disappointing performance of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections 2026 has underscored the party’s shrinking footprint in the state’s most powerful civic body. As counting continues, the MNS is leading in just 10 wards, a marginal presence compared to the Shiv Sena (UBT)-led alliance, which is ahead in around 75 seats, and the dominant BJP–Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) combine, which is leading in approximately 118 wards.

Result Highlights Thackeray's Failure 

The results highlight the inability of the Thackeray cousins’ brief political rapprochement to counter the organisational strength of the ruling alliance. Despite an aggressive campaign marked by fiery speeches and renewed emphasis on Marathi identity politics, Raj Thackeray’s appeal appears to be waning. The BMC outcome follows the party’s poor showing in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections, where the MNS failed to win a single seat and saw its vote share collapse to 1.55 per cent.

Existential Threat To MNS

The BMC defeat has intensified concerns over the possible derecognition of the MNS as a state party, a move that would strip it of its official status and common election symbol, dealing a severe blow to its organisational identity and electoral viability. Without control over the BMC, Raj Thackeray also loses access to civic patronage networks that traditionally sustain party cadres. Political observers warn that this could trigger cadre erosion and defections, particularly toward the BJP and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, which currently dominate Mumbai’s political ecosystem.

The results also signal that Thackeray legacy politics and nostalgia are no longer sufficient to consolidate the Marathi vote, especially in an election where civic governance issues took a back seat to identity-driven rhetoric.

Uncertain Road Ahead

With limited legislative presence, Raj Thackeray may increasingly turn to street politics, language-based agitations, and media-centric campaigns to retain relevance. There is also speculation that the MNS could eventually seek an alliance with the BJP-led Mahayuti as a junior partner, though no formal talks have surfaced so far. Adding to the party’s challenges, Amit Thackeray’s third-place finish in Mahim in the 2024 Assembly elections has stalled succession plans and raised questions about leadership renewal within the MNS.

As Maharashtra politics crystallises into a bipolar contest between the Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi, the MNS now faces a stark choice, accept political subordination or risk fading into irrelevance.

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