Nationwide Lockdown Rescued India From Becoming Another Italy: ICMR On Covid-19 Outbreak

As per ICMR internal assessment data, cases in India had the potential to rise to 8,20,000 by April 15, but the nationwide lockdown prevented this from becoming a reality.

More than 80 percent of cases are confined to just 78 districts in the entire country. (File Photo/ Getty)

New Delhi: It seems that the lockdown has rescued India from having a situation like Italy. According to The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) internal assessment data cases in India had the potential to rise to 8,20,000 by April 15. The lockdown prevented this from becoming a reality. Although there has been an increase in the number of cases in India and the current numbers of confirmed cases stand at 5709. More than 80 percent of cases are confined to just 78 districts in the entire country. According to reports, the foreign ministry additional secretary Vikas Swarup has said that if it wasn’t for the lockdown implemented by Prime Minister Narendra Modi then the country would have had the same condition as Italy. The ICMR has also given an estimation based on studies that one infected person has the capacity to infect around 406 persons in 30 days.  This estimate was derived by calculating with an 'R0' or R naught of 2.5 and a situation where there was no quarantine procedure in place. The R naught is a mathematical term which measures approximately how contagious an infectious disease is. Lav Agarwal, Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Health had also said, “If we take the 'R0' to be 2.5 then one positive person can infect 406 people in 30 days if the lockdown and social distancing measures are not in place, but if social exposure is reduced by 75 percent then that one sick person will only be able to infect only 2.5 persons." Social distancing and quarantine measures are imperative to control the numbers of cases arising from coronavirus. The Prime Minister had announced a nationwide lockdown on March 24^th with strict restrictions on travel. As the day for lifting the lockdown approaches and the numbers continue to increase there are talks of an extension of the lockdown.