Covid-19 Third Wave: Milder Than Second Wave Expected To Hit India By February, Predicts IIT Scientist

Agarwal noted that the cases in South Africa are being closely watched where many cases of this variant have been recorded and added that as of now South Africa has not seen a rise in hospitalisation

Representational Image | (File Photo/ Getty Images)

New Delhi: As Covid-19 lingers with the new variant Omicron emerging, the third wave of coronavirus could hit the peak by February with cases likely to reach up to 1-1.5 lakh a day in India, but it will be milder than the second wave, said Manindra Agarwal, an IIT scientist.

Agarwal, who is involved in the mathematical projection of the trajectory of Covid-19, shared the concerns in the latest forecast in which the new Omicron variant has been factored in.

Should India be worried with the third wave?

“With the new variant, our current forecast is that the country could see the third wave by February but it will be milder than the second wave. So far we have seen that the severity of Omicron is not like the one seen in the Delta variant,” Agarwal informed PTI.

The cases in South Africa are being closely watched where many cases of this variant have been recorded. Agarwal added that as of now South Africa has not seen a rise in hospitalisation.

We plot three scenarios:
Optimistic: vaccine immunity does not reduce
Intermediate: vaccine immunity is halved
Pessimistic: vaccine immunity goes completely

As can be seen, there is a mild third wave, with peak between 100-150K infections per day occurring sometime in Feb. pic.twitter.com/qw5PZlm54J

— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) December 3, 2021

However, the IIT Kanpur scientist said a fresh set of data on the virus and hospitalisations would help in getting a more solid picture. “It looks like although the new variant has shown high transmissibility, its severity is not like the one seen in the Delta variant,” Agarwal said.

What is the way out?

Agarwal mentioned that at the time of delta surge it was observed that a mild lockdown (night curfew, restrictions on crowding) can bring down beta substantially. That will significantly reduce the peak value, he added.

The Department of Science and Technology (DST) backed Sutra-model had earlier said the third wave of coronavirus could hit the country by October if a new variant, more virulent and transmissible than the Delta, emerges.

With no new variant till November end, it has then revised its forecast to November.

 Omicron, the new variant of Covid, will primarily affect the major cities in India because people are traveling, director of Tata Institute for Genetics and Society and former Chief of Council of Scientific and Industrial Research-Centre For Cellular And Molecular Biology, Dr Rakesh Mishra, told news agency ANI in an exclusive interview.

On November 26, the World Health Organisation (WHO) named the Covid-19 virus variant detected in South Africa and some other countries as Omicron. The WHO has also classified the Omicron variant as a 'Variant of Concern'.