3°C Global Warming Could Put 80% Of Elderly People At Risk Of Death, Study Warns

A new study warns that 3°C global warming could expose over 80% of India’s elderly to prolonged extreme heat, with South Asia facing major risks.

A new study warns that rising global temperatures could expose millions of older adults in India and South Asia to prolonged periods of dangerous heat.

Source : Pexel

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Key points generated by AI, verified by newsroom

• Rising global temperatures pose severe South Asian elderly health risks.
• Three-degree warming risks 80% Indian elderly, prolonged heat exposure.
• Delhi, Indo-Gangetic Plain face extreme day/night heat conditions.
• Vulnerable regions need stronger warnings, targeted protection measures.

Rising global temperatures are becoming an increasingly serious health concern, particularly for older adults. A new study published in The Lancet Planetary Health highlights the growing danger of extreme heat as the planet warms. According to the research, if global temperatures rise by around 3°C or more above pre-industrial levels, millions of elderly people in South Asia, including India, could face dangerous heat conditions during both the day and night for several months each year. India is among the countries considered particularly vulnerable to this growing threat.

3°C Temperature Rise Could Put 80% Of Elderly People At Risk

The study suggests that under a 3°C warming scenario, elderly people in India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh could experience dangerous heat during both daytime and nighttime for nearly three months a year. Together, these four countries are home to around 73% of the world's elderly population. India could face an especially serious situation. The research indicates that with a 3°C temperature rise, more than half of India's population and over 80% of people aged over 60 could experience at least 180 hours of extreme heat annually on average. Such prolonged exposure can place considerable stress on the human body.

Delhi And The Indo-Gangetic Plain Face Greater Heat Risk

Delhi and the wider Indo-Gangetic Plain have been identified as particularly vulnerable regions. According to the study's projections, older adults in these areas could experience 1,000 or more hours of potentially dangerous heat each year even under a 1.5°C warming scenario. If global warming reaches 3°C, the duration could rise to more than 2,000 hours. The heat would not be evenly distributed across the year, with the most intense exposure expected between May and September.

Heat Could Continue Through Both Day And Night

According to lead author Professor Qingqing Kong, warming of more than 3°C could expose older adults to dangerous heat during both daytime and nighttime for several consecutive months. Such prolonged heat exposure could put additional pressure on cooling systems, electricity networks, healthcare services and existing heat-response programmes. Night-time temperatures are particularly important because cooler nights provide the body with an opportunity to recover from daytime heat.

Why Are Older Adults More Vulnerable To Extreme Heat?

Older people generally have a lower ability to regulate body temperature compared with younger adults. With age, sweating can become less efficient, blood vessels may respond more slowly and the cardiovascular system can face greater strain during extreme heat. The researchers assessed heat tolerance across different age groups, including people aged 15-39, 40-59 and those aged over 60. This allowed them to estimate how heat exposure and related risks could vary across age groups under different warming scenarios.

South Asia Among The Most Vulnerable Regions

The research highlights countries including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Niger as particularly vulnerable to rising heat risks. High levels of heat exposure, large populations and socioeconomic challenges can make it more difficult for communities to cope with extreme temperatures. As the global population ages, the impact of rising temperatures on older adults is becoming an increasingly important public health concern. Experts stress the need for heat-health systems that consider not just temperature, but also humidity, duration of exposure, age and nighttime heat. The findings underline the importance of stronger heat-warning systems, accessible cooling facilities and targeted protection for vulnerable populations as global temperatures continue to rise.

[Disclaimer: This information is based on research studies and expert opinion. Do not substitute for medical advice. Always consult your doctor or relevant specialist before undertaking any new activity or exercise.]