Madhya Pradesh: Can BJP Beat Anti-Incumbency Against A Resurgent Congress? 

The BJP's performance in the Madhya Pradesh elections will be a key indicator to gauge the mood of the voters ahead of the mega 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

The BJP's performance in the Madhya Pradesh elections will be a key indicator to gauge the mood of the voters ahead of the mega 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Source : PTI

With nearly two decades of leadership in Madhya Pradesh, fatigue among voters and a reviving and aggressive Congress, all eyes will be on the BJP's performance in Madhya Pradesh. The party could face anti-incumbency after three consecutive terms since 2003, with a short break in 2018 when Congress won. The anti-incumbency factor could hold for Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan as well, who has been at the helm of the state leadership for 18 years.

While the battle could be steep, the saffron party is pulling all stops to retain power in the state which will go to polls on November 17. The 230-member assembly will vote in a single phase and the result will be declared on December 3.

Here's what might work in the party's favour and what could pull it back in the battleground.

What Could Work In BJP's Favour 

With a robust organisational set-up, hailed by Amit Shah as one of the best in the country, the state leadership is in an election mode throughout the year and could potentially lend the party an edge over others in the high-stakes poll battle. The party is also relying on PM Modi, who has been on a campaigning spree in the state, as well as Chief Minister Shivraj Chouhan -- a popular leader from the OBC section with a mass appeal.

The party is also banking on its outreach programs to woo voters. It launched its Vijayan Abhiyan (Victory Campaign) on October 16  in 65,000 booths across 12,000 locations aimed at emboldening the party's ground connect. Apart from the campaign followed by doorstep canvassing and public rallies, the saffron party is also counting on schemes focused on women like the 'Ladli Bahna Yojana' under which eligible women get Rs 1,250 per month and the government promised to increase this dole up to Rs 3,000 per month.

A dash of Hindutva politics with a special focus on leveraging from the 'double engine' government and promise of development along with guidance from master strategist Amit Shah could give the party the much-needed boost.

As the party hopes to return to power, it has roped in some of its MPs and Union ministers hailing from the state into the fray for their mass appeal which could help battle the potential anti-incumbency. The party has fielded its national general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya, a key strategist and crowd-puller.

But the BJP does have opportunities it could cash it to retain power in the state. With nearly 20 years of ruling the state, the party has fulfilled several promises it made to women voters and other sections through welfare schemes. Along with the ground connect, the recent row over Sanatan Dharma has given the party a shot in the arm as it can now reinforce its Hindutva politics. The BJP raked up the comments of DMK leaders during the recent Jan Ashirwad Yatra.

With the AAP and Samajwadi Party contesting separately, the party could benefit from the division of votes.

What Ails And Threatens BJP?

With an eye on the seat of power, the ruling BJP faces a tough battle with anti-incumbency -- the effect of which was felt in 2018 with the Congress toppling the Shivraj government albeit for a short span. At that time, the Congress won 114 seats and despite falling short of securing a simple majority, Congress formed a government with the help of four independents. However, the victory was short-lived after 22 MLAs of the Congress, including senior leader Jyotiraditya Scindia, switched sides to the BJP. 

And now with the same leaders who sided with Scindia making a return to the grand old party, the BJP is facing rumblings in the organisation. A fatigue factor against CM Chouhan along with the many contenders to the post of the chief minister is not making the battle any easier.

The Congress has launched a vociferous campaign against alleged corruption, rise in the crime against women, atrocities against Dalits and tribals, rising inflation and unemployment among other issues.

The infighting within the party, largely been kept under wraps due to strong central leadership, could expose the fault lines with a defeat. The BJP might struggle to find an ally in case of a hung assembly.

With these challenges, a resurgent Congress has gained most of the lost ground since 2003 when it won just 38 seats but made a comeback by winning 114 constituencies in 2018.

The Congress has assured many 'guarantees' like the waiver of farm loans, the revival of the old pension scheme and up to 100 units of free electricity and this could lure the voters to change their mind about the saffron party.

Constituencies To Watch Out For

Following are the key seats to watch out for:

Budhni: The seat has been won by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan since 2006. Chouhan won the seat for his party in the 2008, 2013 and 2018 assembly elections.

Chhindwara: The Congress has fielded former Chief Minister and state party chief Kamal Nath from here -- his home turf.

Dimni: The BJP picked Union Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar from here and it becomes crucial as Tomar is seen as a strong contender for the chief minister’s post.

Narsinghpur: The ruling party has fielded OBC leader and Union minister Prahlad Singh Patel from here in the place of sitting MLA and his younger brother Jalam Singh Patel.

Indore-1: BJP veteran and the party's national general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya has been fielded from here. The seat is currently held by Congress leader Sanjay Shukla

Datia: Chief ministerial hopeful and state home minister Narottam Mishra has represented the constituency since 2008. Mishra is a firebrand leader of the party also in the spotlight for controversies.