If Chirag Paswan Goes Solo In Bihar Election, Can BJP Afford The Fallout?
Ahead of Bihar election, Chirag Paswan's LJP (Ram Vilas) reportedly demands 36 seats from the NDA. Know why his inclusion is important for the BJP in the upcoming polls.
With the Bihar Assembly elections approaching, the alliance dynamics within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are again under spotlight. Union Minister and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan has reportedly drawn a hard line in his seat-sharing negotiations with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), signalling that his party would not settle for less than 36 seats.
2020 Flashback: A Vote Split That Cost JD(U) Dearly
In the 2020 Bihar polls, the Lok Janshakti Party-Ram Vilas led by Chirag Paswan broke away from the NDA after disagreements with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United). The LJP-R decided to contest alone but extended issue-based support to BJP candidates, avoiding direct confrontations with them.
This strategy, however, hit JD(U) hard. The LJP fielded candidates in constituencies contested by Nitish Kumar’s party, leading to a division of votes that contributed to JD(U)’s losses in several seats. In at least 27 constituencies, the LJP’s vote share exceeded the margin of defeat for JD(U), notably in Hasanpur, where RJD’s Tej Pratap Yadav triumphed due to the split.
Although the LJP won just one seat, it effectively played the role of a spoiler—shrinking JD(U)’s tally to its lowest in two decades. The episode established Chirag Paswan as a disruptive force in Bihar politics, capable of altering electoral outcomes without necessarily winning many seats. This manoeuvre also weakened Nitish Kumar's position in the alliance.
LJP (Ram Vilas) Draws a Firm Line
As nomination dates near—the process begins on October 10—seat-sharing discussions between the BJP and LJP (Ram Vilas) have hit a stalemate. Party sources told reporters that Chirag Paswan has made it clear his party will not accept fewer than 36 Assembly seats.
The BJP has proposed a formula of six Assembly seats per Lok Sabha constituency for its smaller allies, which would allocate around 30 seats to Chirag Paswan’s party based on its five MPs. However, LJP (R) leaders insist they were short-changed in the Lok Sabha polls and were promised compensation during the Assembly elections.
“So far, eight Assembly seats have been confirmed for LJP (Ram Vilas)—Govindganj, Hisua, Rajapakar, Brahmapur, Bodh Gaya, Sikandra, Makhdumpur, and Jehanabad,” sources added.
The party has also appointed Arun Bharti as its election in-charge to handle future talks with the BJP. According to insiders, Chirag has conveyed that he will not engage directly with BJP leaders Dharmendra Pradhan or Vinod Tawde on seat negotiations anymore. “As party president, Chirag will speak only to top BJP leadership if needed,” a source said, indicating a more assertive posture from the LJP (R) camp.
Can BJP Afford A Fallout?
If Chirag Paswan were to go solo, the repercussions could extend far beyond just the NDA’s seat arithmetic. His party commands considerable support among Dalits—particularly the Paswan community, estimated to form about 9% of Bihar’s population. A separate contest could lead to the fragmentation of the NDA’s vote base, particularly hurting the BJP in constituencies with significant Paswan voters.
By splitting the anti-Mahagathbandhan (RJD-led alliance) vote, LJP (RV) candidates, even if they don't win, could enable the Opposition's candidates to secure victory in close contests.
Moreover, any split within the NDA could reinforce perceptions of internal disunity, already fuelled by Chirag’s past criticism of Nitish Kumar’s governance. In 2020, his campaign slogan, “Modi se bair nahi, Nitish teri khair nahi (No quarrel with Modi, but Nitish, you will not be spared),” encapsulated his sharp attack on the Chief Minister’s leadership while reaffirming loyalty to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
For the BJP, maintaining balance between Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) remains critical. The party relies on Nitish’s Extremely Backward Class (EBC) base but also needs Paswan’s Dalit support to consolidate its position.
Chirag Paswan’s repeated criticism of Nitish Kumar’s leadership has often exposed fissures within the NDA, compelling the BJP to tread carefully as it prepares for another closely contested Bihar election.
Chirag’s Stand: ‘Bihar First, Bihari First’
Speaking to reporters on the ongoing talks, a visibly irked Chirag Paswan expressed displeasure over reports on his seat demands. He said, “I want to clearly state one thing: the discussions are going well and I believe that the right decision will be taken at the right time… As soon as the discussion is completed, it will be shared with you… Chirag Paswan only demands one thing: that is to make Bihar first and Biharis first. Chirag’s demand is neither regarding any post, nor regarding any anger towards anyone, nor regarding anyone’s seats…”
#WATCH | Khagaria, Bihar: On seat sharing, LJP(R) President and Union Minister Chirag Paswan says, "I want to clearly state one thing that the discussions are going well and I believe that the right decision will be taken at the right time... As soon as the discussion is… pic.twitter.com/PHksOiTKxE
— ANI (@ANI) October 8, 2025
The remarks come as, reportedly, the Paswan-led party has also turned down the offer of a Rajya Sabha seat, insisting that any deal must meet its demand for at least 36 Assembly seats.
How the BJP manoeuvres through LJP(R)'s seat demands along with expectations of other allies while ensuring a prominent share for itself will be revealed when the alliance begins announcing candidates for all 243 seats. Polling for the Bihar Assembly elections will take place in two phases—on November 6 and 11—with counting scheduled for November 14.
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