More Assertive Israel, Divided Palestine: As Conflict Grows, Will There Be Another Intifada?
After failing to form a stable government even after five elections in less than four years, an ultra-rightist government was formed with a sizeable majority after the November 2022 legislative elections in Israel. They don’t want Israel to be a Republic but only a Jewish state. They want Palestinians out of their homeland. But two Palestinian factions ruling in separate areas are engaged in long internecine fights. Unless they unite, their future is bleak.
Today, the West is heaping praise on the Ukrainian people for withstanding Russian onslaught against their country, lauding their tenacity to suffer from severe destruction of houses, civil infrastructure and combating the harsh winter. But in another part of the world, a systematic killing of people both by armed military personnel and by fighter jets is unabated. The West has expressed its “deep concern” and “grave distress” on the recent developments there and urged both sides to cease fire and negotiate. Special envoys from the UN visited the region. In the meantime, common Palestinians who have been leading a miserable life for decades see no end in sight to their miseries.
An ultra-right coalition government came to power in Israel in December last year with a loud and clear policy announcement for their longstanding determination to make Israel a Jewish state, their supremacy in the occupied territories and open denial of any consideration of the “two-state” formula. They firmly believe that “One State” of Israel is a reality. The extreme rightists of the coalition laud their forefathers for evicting hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from their promised land of Israel during 1947-1949, but laments their failure to throw out the remaining en masse. Under the circumstances, it was clear from the beginning that this government would take up that mantle. And they have started doing so within a very short time. Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as well as in the West Bank were mentally prepared for this situation. Several armed Palestinian groups wanted to pre-empt the Israeli plan. In a daring adventure, a 22-year old Palestinian from Hebron refugee camp stabbed an Israeli soldier. The boy was killed and it triggered Israeli retaliation.
Israeli Society Divided Into Two Unequal Sections
Creation of a homeland for the Jews who had been persecuted for centuries cannot be questioned. It was required and fully justified to redress the injustice inflicted on them, mainly in the European countries. Today’s Israeli society is divided into two unequal sections — one large but not so powerful and the other small but very strong and determined to do what they consider must be done. The mainstream secular Israelis are passionate about the American style of life. These liberal majority liberals are convinced that Israel could be Jewish and democratic, the Palestinian Arab knows Israel must be a true democracy in order to be at peace with itself and its neighbours. On the other side of the divide are the extreme right fanatics. They regret that the Zionists who played a major role in establishing Israel failed to make Israel a land for Jewish people only, where no one else could live.
Whichever government came to power, they grabbed more and more land from the Palestinians. More than 42% of the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, has been occupied and colonised, and their intention now is to annex the territories. Before doing that, those fanatics are enlarging their occupation to make the additional areas of the West Bank as de facto Israeli territory. For them, Israel is the only country in the world that does not have any defined international boundary. Their (Israeli) Biblical “Promised Land” is much bigger than the present-day Israel.
Israel has been passing through electoral turmoil for the past few years. During the last 43 months, five general elections were held. No single party or pre-election coalitions could win a definitive majority to form a stable government, and none lasted more than a year and half. Strange bedfellows can’t sleep together.
The last round of legislative elections were held on November 1, 2022. But despite going to polling stations repeatedly, the Israelis did not show any not fatigue. In fact, voter turnout was more than 58%, the highest since 1999. The centre-right, ultra orthodox and far or extreme right wing coalition has now formed the government with a comfortable majority. And, similarity in ideology of the coalition partners gives hope to a full-term government this time.
The key to their win was to ensure high turnout by mobilising their own supporters and sympathisers rather than convincing the floating voters. They brought more secured voters to the polling booths than their opposition. Areas in the cities and towns in central Israel witnessed turnout figures practically remaining almost the same as in 2021. As opposed to this, areas that lean towards the right saw vote increase by three to seven percentage points. And that was the decider. The new government rejects Palestinian statehood as well as all past agreements in this regard. So Arabs inside Israel and the Palestinians in the occupied area as well as in Gaza are in trouble.
Unity Eludes Palestine, And Time Is Running Out
Part of the trouble is the Palestinian groups’ own creation. Since 2006, Mahmoud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh have been ruling the West Bank and Gaza, respectively, like incompetent autocrats. These two leaders are more interested in a power struggle than their fight for statehood. And in their game, Abbas after realising ineffectiveness of the US support for his cause, has now approached Russia. But Hamas leaders have no choice other than getting some relief from Syria and Iran, countries who themselves are in trouble. What these two factions, Farah and Hamas, are yet to realise is that the only way to salvage their struggle to any meaningful level is to present their cause unitedly to the international community in general and, to the mainstream Arab countries in particular. That the Beirut Declaration of the Arab League in 2002 must be the basis of peace negotiation with Israel. It called for the withdrawal of all Israeli forces from occupied territories and recognising the Palestine state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
For decades, efforts have been made by various countries trying to bring these two Palestinian factions under one umbrella. The latest being in Algiers in October 2022. But to no avail. It allows Israel to follow the cliched policy of divide and rule/ occupy/ attack. It is very natural that after more than three decades of protracted negotiations, if the Palestinian leaders with their followers are busy to prove their one-upmanship, they will be forgotten by the rest of the world. Resolutions at the United Nations will not cut any ice.
Both sides will need to transcend their opposite approaches to the conflict. As stated above, they had reached a variety of agreements in the past, but they could not — rather did not — follow their agreed commitments. Indirect and direct talks have been mediated, especially by Turkey, for decades. In fact, while I was serving in our Embassy in Syria, a secret marathon of indirect talks between the two sides was held in Istanbul in 2008. Khaled Mashal, Chief of Hamas Political Bureau, who was living in exile in Damascus, would visit Istanbul for 2-3 days and return. That went on for a month or so. At a National Day reception by Egypt, which he attended, Mashal had briefed at one corner the Arab diplomats present there on the outcome of his several visits to Istanbul. I, as an Indian diplomat (India does not recognise/deal with Hamas) could not get into the circle. But I heard from a friendly Arab Ambassador that Khaled Masal’s main argument was: “Hamas does not accept the existence of Israel as a country. They are occupiers. Fatah has been dealing with Israel and so any rapproachment between them is out of question.”
If the Palestinians really want to achieve their goal, they have to abide by the Algiers Agreement. Since there has been no presidential and Palestinian National Authority elections since 2005, they must set aside their differences, set up a well defined national agenda together with a strategy for liberation. After that, the agenda is to be put to a national vote. Once the elections are over and a new unity government is formed, they should approach the UN for international support for their genuine and much delayed demand.
It was their unity during the first joint intifada (popular uprising during December 1987 to September 1993 — 5 years) that forced the US as well as Israel to recognise and, more importantly, deal directly with the PLO. Then, the second intifada (September 2000 to February 2005 — 4 years) brought the recognition for a two-state theory. So, unity among the Palestinians has proven to be their best weapon to achieve their goal. With the new Israeli government coming to power with a declared policy to obliterate them, unity alone can help them with their survival. Besides international assistance, they will also get meaningful support from the mainstream Israelis and various Israeli human rights groups who champion Palestinian causes. Only unity can give them victory. Dissent is destruction. And time is running out.
The author is a retired IFS officer and former Indian Ambassador and High Commissioner who served extensively in the Gulf, West Asia, and Eastern & Southern African countries.
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