ABPNews-LoknitiCSDS Survey: BJP set to sweep Gujarat, Vijay Rupani first choice for CM

ABPNews-LoknitiCSDS Survey: BJP set to sweep Gujarat, Vijay Rupani first choice for CM

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and chief minister Vijay Rupani's charisma will fetch a clean sweep for ruling BJP in  upcoming assembly elections in Gujarat with 144-152 seats while Congress may win just 26-32 seats this time, according to ABP News- CSDS Lokniti survey.

Opinion Poll conducted in the State finds the ruling BJP, which has been in power in Gujarat for the last two decades, to be way, way ahead of the Congress at the current moment.

BJP seems to gain over last assembly elections held in 2012 under the leadership of then Chief Minister Narendra Modi. Like in other parts of India, Congress is losing out base in Gujarat too.

Gujarat assembly has a strength of 182 members.

According to the opinion poll, the upcoming election of Gujarat appears like a ‘no-contest’ with the BJP leading its arch-rival by over thirty percentage points in terms of people’s voting intention.

59 per cent respondents said that they would vote for the BJP if state elections were to take place now. Only 29% were found to be rooting for the Congress. This means that the BJP has thus far managed to retain the level of support it received in the 2014 Lok Sabha election and the Congress has slid down further.

Gujarat voters’ voting intention if assembly elections are held now (August 2017)

According to the poll BJP’s sweep is witnessed all over Gujarat and in all regions of the state. Best performance is in Saurashtra and Kutch regions where BJP is expected to get 65 percent votes.

Gujarat voters’ voting intention if assembly elections are held now (August 2017) Region wise vote

There seems to be no major challenger against Vijay Rupani for the position of chief minister within or outside the BJP. He leads the chief ministerial race by a wide margin as 24 per cent of the voters said they would like to see Rupani back at the helm. 7 per cent respondents want to see prime minister Narendra Modi to come back to Gujarat and rule the state. 2 per cent voters positioned themselves in the favor of BJP national president Amit Shah. 43 per cent did not take any name when asked about their favorite for chief ministerial post.

What seems to be working in the BJP’s favour the most is its decision to replace Anandiben Patel with Vijay Rupani as the chief minister a year ago. When asked whose performance as chief minister had been better among the two, twice as many chose Rupani’s term as they did Patel’s term (34% to 17%). This perhaps means that any anti-incumbency sentiment that might have existed against Patel’s government may now have weakened with Rupani as the State’s leader.

Spontaneous Chief Minister Preference -Vijay Rupani way ahead of others right now; 43% took no name

Contrary to popular analysis, the recent agitation by some Patel leaders demanding OBC status does not seem to have greatly negatively impacted the BJP’s popularity among its staunchest voters, the Patels, with nearly three in every four voters belonging to the dominant community still supporting the party. Other than holding on to its core voters, the BJP seems to have also made some serious inroads among the old voting bloc of the Congress - Kshatriyas, Dalits, Tribals and Muslims - politically known as KHAM.

While the Kshatriya drift away from the Congress has been going on since the mid-1990s, what is stunning are the BJP’s gains among Dalits, Tribals and Muslims. The Una Dalit flogging incident does not seem to have resulted in a consolidation of Dalits behind the Congress. On the contrary, the party’s traditionally high lead over the BJP among Dalits has narrowed considerably

Voting intentions of castes and communities at the moment - BJP consolidates base and makes gains

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