Justin Trudeau’s Early Election Call & Confidence Over Vaccination Strategy May Prove Costly, Believe Analysts

With 12 days to go for crucial elections, poll analysts believe there are a number of reasons in Trudeau's potential downfall

Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau speaks during the federal election French-language leaders debate at the Canadian Museum of History in Gatineau, Quebec, Canada on September 8, 2021. | AFP

New Delhi: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has called for a snap election for September 20, eyeing to win a ruling majority for his Liberal Party may not stand a bright chance.

On the back of confidence after the successful vaccination strategy, Trudeau was self-assured about gaining the support of Canadian voters with his main opponent Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole status between unpopular and unknown.

However, his dwindling numbers has left many baffled. The countdown has begun and it is unlikely that he will be able to prove majority and may or even face a humiliating defeat, as per Bloomberg report.

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"The Liberals likely called the election thinking that they would be able to run on their pandemic record, bask in a vaccination halo and get ahead of the post-stimulus economic adjustment," said Nik Nanos, an Ottawa-based pollster at Nanos Research Group, according to Bloomberg.

"That's out the door now," he added.

What are the predictions of poll analysts?

With 12 days to go for crucial snap elections, poll analysts believe there are a number of reasons for Trudeau's potential downfall.

Most experts believe that voters have a feeling of politicians taking advantage to have turned a health crisis into a power grab. One of the polls showed nearly 60 percent saying the country shouldn't be conducting an election.

According to Bloomberg, Canadians are comfortable with a minority government and have no special desire to help the Liberals gain full parliamentary control.

Others point at tactical factors where Trudeau has tried to convey a message about his vision and the reason for the vote while O'Toole's Conservatives announced a platform focused on the economy and free of much of the party's traditional ideological baggage.

The Liberals have been focusing on issues including abortion, private health care, anti-vaxxers, and gun control while portraying the Conservatives as regressive. 

While some Liberals also mention the exhaustion among insiders who are tired by the pandemic. They have pointed out that the government has not introduced new talent, but decided on election based on excessive self-confidence that led them to believe in the inevitability of victory.

According to Bloomberg, there were incidences of Liberal officials returning from vacation only days before the start of the campaign, and local candidates short of volunteers.

"I don't understand how they could have been so tone-deaf about the mood of the Canadian public, about peoples' total preoccupation with Covid and some kind of return to normal," said Peter Donolo, a vice chairman at Hill+Knowlton Canada who was communications chief to former Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chretien.