IMF Exposes Pakistan’s Fragile Economy: Growth Weak, Debt Heavy, Recovery Still Distant
Heavy debt, weak investment, and slow job growth persist. Projected growth barely exceeds population increase, stagnating per capita income.
Pakistan’s economic distress is no longer hidden from the world. Crushed under mounting debt, a weakening currency, soaring inflation and a sharp fall in investment, the neighbouring country’s economy has been battling a deep crisis for a long time. Amid this backdrop, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest assessment, has once again brought Pakistan’s actual economic condition into global focus.
According to the IMF, although Pakistan has managed to achieve short-term stability, its economy is still severely impacted by heavy debt pressure, a weak investment climate and sluggish job growth. The assessment was released alongside the IMF’s announcement of a fresh tranche of nearly $1.2 billion for Pakistan.
Growth to Improve Marginally, Still Matches Population Rise
The IMF projects that Pakistan’s economic growth may reach 3.2 per cent in 2025–26, slightly higher than the 2.6 per cent recorded in the previous financial year. However, this growth remains almost equal to the country’s population growth rate of about 2.55 per cent for its population of over 240 million.
Per Capita Income Stagnant, Inflation Risks Persist
As a result, the pace of improvement in per capita income appears extremely slow. At present, Pakistan’s per capita income stands at around $1,677, reflecting economic stagnation rather than sustained recovery.
While the sharp inflation rate of 23.4 per cent in 2023–24 eased to 4.5 per cent in 2024–25, the IMF estimates that it could rise again to 6.3 per cent in 2025–26. Rapid population growth, limited resources and ongoing political instability continue to deepen Pakistan’s economic challenges, making a full financial recovery increasingly difficult.
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