French Elections: Macron And Le Pen's Parties Lag Behind Hard-Left Coalition, But No Majority In Sight, Early Trends Show
France Elections 2024: The French left-wing coalition leads in runoff elections, ahead of Macron's alliance and the far-right. No party is expected to win an outright majority in parliament.
France Elections 2024: The French hard-left coalition is on Sunday leading the crucial runoff elections followed by President Emmanuel Macron's alliance and the far right in third, initial projections show, as no party is expected to win an outright majority in parliament, news agency AFP reported. French far-right has fallen short of expectations and trails leftist rivals in legislative elections, news agency AP reported pollsters as saying
French hard-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon called for Macron's prime minister to resign and left-wing coalition to 'govern' after projections show it ahead, AFP reported.
France has undergone high-stakes runoff elections that were earlier expected to see historic victory for Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, characterised by its nationalist, anti-immigrant stance, or result in a hung parliament and subsequent political stalemate. These snap legislative elections are set to have significant implications on the global stage, influencing the war in Ukraine, international diplomacy, and Europe’s economic stability.
They are also expected to impact French President Emmanuel Macron’s remaining term, which spans three more years.
This comes after Macron took a substantial risk by dissolving the parliament and calling for these elections following his centrist party’s poor performance in the European elections on June 9. The first round of elections on June 30 marked unprecedented gains for the National Rally, which emerged as the leading party, AP reported.
Reflecting the critical nature of these elections, voter turnout was remarkably high. By 5 p.m. local time, the turnout was 59.7%, the highest for this time of day since 1981, according to the Interior Ministry. The first round saw a 67% turnout, the highest since 1997.
According to AFP, polls closed at 8:00 pm (11:30 pm IST), with initial projections expected shortly afterward. Initial polling projections came by Sunday night, with early official results expected late Sunday or early Monday.
Despite the high stakes, the outcome remains unpredictable. Earlier media reports cited Polls as indicating that while the National Rally may secure the most seats in the National Assembly, it could fall short of the 289 seats required for a majority. Such a result would still be historic, marking a significant shift for a party with controversial roots.
A potential National Rally majority can lead to the first far-right government in France since World War II, with 28-year-old Jordan Bardella potentially becoming prime minister.
Conversely, with the far right not performing as per expectations as early trends show, a hung parliament could lead to a coalition attempt by the National Rally, despite its lack of natural allies, or force Macron to form a coalition with centre-left parties or a non-political technocratic government.
Regardless of the result, Macron’s centrist faction will have to share power, possibly with a prime minister who fundamentally disagrees with his policies, in a scenario known in France as “cohabitation”, AP reported
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The elections also determine the composition of France’s National Assembly, which will further decide the appointment of the prime minister. Many from Macron’s centrist alliance were eliminated or withdrew after the first round, indicating a significant shift from his 2017 majority and 2022 plurality.
A far-right victory or a hung parliament would be unprecedented in modern France, complicating decisions on arming Ukraine, labour law reforms, and deficit reduction. Financial markets have been volatile since Macron’s unexpected call for elections.
Racism and antisemitism have marred the electoral campaign, along with Russian disinformation campaigns, and more than 50 candidates reported being physically attacked — highly unusual for France, AP's report stated. The government is deploying 30,000 police on voting day.
The heightened tensions come at a time when France is celebrating a very special summer as its capital city Paris is about to host ambitious Olympic Games, the national soccer team reached the semifinal of the Euro 2024 championship, and the Tour de France is racing around the country alongside the Olympic torch.
Pierre Lubin, a 45-year-old business manager, expressed concerns about the potential efficacy of the next government. “Will it be a technical government or a coalition of various political forces?” he pondered, as quoted by the report.
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The National Rally’s success can be attributed to its resonance with voters frustrated by low incomes and perceived elitism in Parisian politics. The party has garnered substantial support by addressing immigration concerns and advocating for significant policy changes.
Le Pen has moderated many of her party’s stances, abandoning calls to exit NATO and the EU, to enhance electability. However, core far-right values persist, including proposed referendums on citizenship criteria and expanded police powers.
On Sunday, Macron cast his vote in La Touquet, alongside his wife, Brigitte, while Prime Minister Gabriel Attal voted in Vanves. Le Pen did not vote, having secured her seat in the first round.
The elections conclude at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT), with initial projections expected soon after and official results anticipated late Sunday or early Monday.
Reflecting on the possible outcomes, 67-year-old retiree Fernando Veloso expressed concerns about a divided government, AP reported. “It’s going to bring confusion,” he said. “Will they be able to govern properly in a cohabitation government, with Macron still in power? It’s tricky.” He added, “Tensions are running high. It’s worrying. Very worrying.”
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