OPINION | Is QUAD A ‘Small Circle’?

With the proposed Quad leaders' meeting in Manila amid tensions in the South China Sea, India faces questions over how to balance cooperation with the US, Japan and Australia against its approach to China.

The Malabar exercises are naval drills conducted by the Quad partners: India, the United States, Japan, and Australia.

Source : X/@indiannavy

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Key points generated by AI, verified by newsroom

• Quad members deploy warships for Malabar exercise near Japan.
• Beijing warns Quad against interfering in South China Sea affairs.
• India frames Quad as democratic, not aimed at China.
• Quad's regional security role questioned, joint patrols unimplemented.

As the four Quad partners—India, the United States, Japan, and Australia—deploy warships in Japanese waters near the Yokosuka naval base for the Malabar exercise from November 5, strategic observers are awaiting the outcome of the much delayed summit of the leaders of the four democracies  in Manila.

The nearly two-week naval exercise in the Pacific has drawn a sharp response from Beijing, as the Chinese state media have criticized the proposed Quad summit in Manila, likely on  November 16, warning against interfering in the South China Sea affairs. The Global Times has also urged India to preserve its strategic autonomy, arguing that New Delhi is unlikely to undermine improving ties with China by joining efforts to contain it.

India's Position: Quad Cooperation Without Targeting China

India, however, describes the Quad as an initiative grounded in democratic values and respect for the rule of law, with the aim of advancing a free, inclusive, and prosperous Indo-Pacific. New Delhi has maintained that its participation is not intended to target China and that India does not wish to be drawn into another country’s strategic agenda. This position underscores India’s effort to balance its engagement with Quad partners against its broader commitment to independent decision-making and stable relations with Beijing.

South China Sea Tensions And China's Concerns Over The Quad

China appears concerned about the possible implications of a Quad leaders’ meeting in Manila on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit, which the Philippines is hosting in mid-November. The meeting would take place amid heightened tensions in the South China Sea, where the Philippines has faced pressure from Chinese vessels. Chinese naval and coast guard activity around Scarborough Shoal has been a particular source of concern for Manila. The shoal lies about 120 nautical miles from the Philippine coast, while Hong Kong is roughly 800 kilometres away, a geographical contrast often cited in discussions of the competing claims and the wider regional dispute.

China was concerned that the four QUAD leaders would again issue a statement on the South China Sea, reaffirming the importance of international law, including the 2016 arbitral ruling under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and endorsing a free and open Indo-Pacific. India, in its engagement with maritime powers and ASEAN members, has consistently emphasized the need to preserve peace and stability in the South China Sea. Its position also implicitly rejects the notion that these waters are China’s alone, underscoring their wider international significance.

Beijing's Opposition To Internationalising South China Sea Disputes

At the same time, China has urged the QUAD—and especially the United States—not to internationalize disputes in the South China Sea. Chinese state media has dismissed the four-country grouping as a “small circle,” while in 2021 China also described the QUAD as a “paper tiger.” Since then, Beijing has continued to oppose initiatives it views as part of a U.S.-led Western strategy to contain China. India, which faces military pressure along its borders with China and challenges to its territorial integrity, has nevertheless joined the QUAD as a key Indo-Pacific partner. Indian officials welcomed the shift in U.S. terminology from “Asia-Pacific” to “Indo-Pacific,” interpreting it as a sign of Washington’s enduring commitment to freedom of navigation and a free and open regional order. But, reversal of this nomenclature to Asia-pacific ,left observers wondering , whether US is again back to China appeasement agenda.

US Engagement And India's Approach To Regional Maritime Security

From India’s perspective, sustained U.S. engagement can help coastal states protect their territorial claims and maritime rights. Regional peace and stability have been strained by China’s assertive conduct and efforts to impose its interpretation of navigation rights unilaterally. Against this backdrop, members of the international community have called on China to respect the legal status of the South China Sea and the applicable rules of international law. They have also resisted the suggestion, reflected in Chinese state media commentary, that the sea’s future should be determined solely by China and the littoral states.

Global Times Warning And The Message For New Delhi

 The Global Times characterized the QUAD summit as a “hasty geopolitical manoeuvre,” describing the group as a small circle that had remained dormant for two years before being revived by the US administration. It also warned that if countries used the summit to signal openly that they intended to interfere in South China Sea affairs, China would respond firmly. The remarks came as the United States, which regards the Philippines as an ally, reaffirmed its commitment to safeguarding Philippine sovereignty amid renewed tensions between China and the Philippines near a disputed atoll.

 Although the warning was directed broadly at the countries involved, it also carried an implicit message for India: New Delhi should not allow itself to be used as an instrument of US policy or as a means of containing China. The Indian government has not said that it joined the QUAD because Washington sought to build a four-country bloc against Beijing. Instead, mindful of concerns about the group’s strategic purpose, India has presented its approach as inclusive, emphasizing cooperation rather than containment.

Quad's Origins, Malabar Exercises And US Leadership

 The Quad cannot operate according to the convenience of the US administration or the changing preferences of its leaders. President Trump postponed his visit to India for two years, delaying his participation in a Quad summit there. Now, as China appears less receptive to his worldview and increasingly challenges US influence, Washington has indicated—though not formally confirmed, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio—that Trump may meet the other Quad leaders in Manila in mid-November, during the ASEAN summit. The choice of venue is significant: the four-nation grouping was revived in Manila in 2017, when senior officials from India, Australia, Japan, and the United States laid the groundwork for renewed cooperation. The Quad’s origins reach back to the 2004 tsunami response and a 2007 maritime exercise that expanded a bilateral drill to include Australia, Japan, Singapore, the United States, and India. After China threatened participating countries, Australia became reluctant to continue, and the Malabar exercise reverted to a bilateral format. Australia returned in 2020, joining India, Japan, and the United States.

Why The Quad Has Yet To Emerge As A Regional Security Force

  Despite the visibility of the four-nation Malabar exercises, the Quad has yet to demonstrate that it can act as an effective regional security force. A proposal for joint Quad patrols in the South China Sea failed to advance, reinforcing China’s portrayal of the grouping as a paper tiger. The hesitation to formally confirm a Manila summit may likewise suggest that the Quad is wary of entering the turbulent waters of the South China Sea. India should carefully assess the benefits and costs of participating in what may prove to be a weak anti-China platform, particularly if its main contribution is to lend credibility to increasingly forceful anti-China rhetoric.

Why India Should Reconsider Its Investment In The Quad

  If Washington is genuinely committed to the Quad, it should have supported New Delhi’s proposal to host a standalone summit, rather than allowing the meeting to be delayed because Trump was unwilling to travel to India. Continued uncertainty and wavering engagement from the United States risk weakening confidence among its partners. If that approach persists, India should avoid appearing overly eager to promote the Quad and should reconsider how much political and diplomatic capital it is prepared to invest in the grouping.

(Ranjit Kumar is a senior journalist and strategic affairs analyst)