India To See Normal Rainfall In Monsoon, El Nino Impact To Be Felt In Second Half: IMD

The IMD's forecast of normal rainfall is expected to provide much-needed relief to the farming community.

The southwest monsoon season is crucial for India's agriculture, which employs a significant portion of the country's population.

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India is expected to experience normal rainfall during the upcoming southwest monsoon season, M Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences announced on Tuesday. This forecast is in line with the prediction made by Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The IMD has predicted that normal rainfall is likely in many parts of the peninsular region, adjoining eastern and northeastern regions, as well as some parts of northwest India. However, the IMD has also cautioned that normal to below-normal rainfall is likely over parts of northwest India, west, central, and northeast regions during the southwest monsoon season.

India to see normal rainfall in southwest monsoon season: M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences

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The forecast for the 2023 Southwest monsoon season (June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole is expected to be around 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA), according to both dynamical and statistical models. The LPA for the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole, based on data from 1971-2020, is 87 cm. However, there is a model error of ± 5%.

The IMD has also stated that not all El Nino years result in bad monsoons. While El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season, its impact may only be felt during the second half of the season.

The IMD's forecast of normal rainfall is expected to provide much-needed relief to the farming community.

On Monday, Skymet Weather, a private forecasting agency, stated that India is expected to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with a 20 per cent probability of drought, due to the conclusion of La Nina conditions and the possibility of El Nino taking hold.

The private forecaster has also anticipated that the northern and central regions of the country may experience a rain deficit, with Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra predicted to witness inadequate rains during the core monsoon months of July and August.

The agricultural bowl of north India, comprising Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, is expected to observe less-than-normal rains during the second half of the season.

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