Bad news for farmers as Monsoon rains predicted to be below normal this year; 15% changes of drought too

The year 2019 might bring a big reason to worry for Indian farmers and the agriculture sector as it is believed that monsoon rains in the country are expected to be below normal this year.

Monsoon usually arrives on the southern tip of Kerala around June 1. (Image: AFP)

Monsoon rainfall is likely to remain ‘below normal’ for the four-month period

The lack of monsoon bracket will have a large impact on India’s economy

East and central India along with some pockets of the south peninsula could be at risk

Monsoon rains 2019: The year 2019 might bring a big reason to worry for Indian farmers and the agriculture sector as it is believed that monsoon rains in the country are expected to be below normal this year. According to a report by private weather forecasting company Skymet, there is a 55 per cent likelihood of below normal monsoon for the year 2019 and what is worse is the prediction of around 15 per cent drought in the country. Monsoon which is the backbone of the country’s agriculture sector usually arrives on the southern tip of Kerala around June 1 and retreat from Rajasthan by September. The lack of monsoon bracket will have a large impact on India’s economy which is heavily dependent on monsoon rains as a majority of its population depends on agriculture for livelihood. Crops like rice, cotton, soybean, sugarcane, corn, cotton and others are produced during the monsoon season. Monsoon rainfall is likely to remain ‘below normal’ for the four-month period from June to September, to the tune of 93 per cent (with an error margin of +/-5 per cent) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm, the report added further. The monsoon is likely to be 93 per cent of the long period average (LPA), the report said. Anything between 90-95 per cent of LPA falls under the "below normal" category. LPA is the average of rainfall between 1951 and 2000, which is 89 cm. Further making it more difficult, there is a zero per cent change of excess or normal monsoon. The deficit is expected to be accumulated in June-July, Skymet said. East and central India along with some pockets of the south peninsula could be at risk, according to the report. The report by Skymet is different than its February report along with India Meteorological Department (IMD) which stated that monsoon rains in India were expected to be normal this year, provided there is no surprise on El-Nino front. Speaking about the report, Skymet MD Jatin Singh said, “The Pacific Ocean has become strongly warmer than average. The model projections call for 80 per cent chance of El Nino during March-May, dropping to 60% for June to August.” Though farming output makes up just less than 14 per cent of India's economy but the sector employs more than half of the country population.

Published at : 03 Apr 2019 05:28 PM (IST)

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