Oppn Votes Split Down The Middle, BJP Finally Breaks A 1985 Congress Record As It Retains Gujarat
Congress has managed to survive only in states where its regional satraps remain in contention. Gujarat is the third state in last 7 years that has slipped out of its hands and landed on AAP's lap.
Narain Dutt Tiwari was the last Congress chief minister of Uttar Pradesh before the Mandal Kamandal shift relegated Congress to the margins of state politics. Unlike in the Hindi heartland, Congress satraps in the west and south were quick to gauge the changing faultlines in Indian politics and tried to build alternative caste coalitions. Madhavsinh Solanki was one of them.
He won 149 seats in the 1985 polls but was ousted by the party in the face of massive anti-quota protests in the state when his government tried to implement OBC quotas in jobs and educational institutions. In the absence of any alternative to reckon with, the Congress managed to get more than 35 per cent-odd votes even in the worst of times.
With the entry of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as a serious contender this time, the opposition votes seem to have got split right down the middle. With the AAP registering 12.92 per cent votes, the incremental gains for the BJP in terms of seats have been enough to surpass Solanki’s record.
Gujarat Election Results | BJP Shatters Multiple Records As Saffron Wave Sweeps PM Modi's Home State
The Congress, with 27.30 per cent vote share in its kitty, has registered its worst-ever performance in the state. The grand old party managed just 17 seats, making it ineligible to the position of leader of opposition in the state legislature.
The Congress in the last three decades got far too many chances but failed to capitalise even once. The lack of strong local leadership did not help matters. Ahmed Patel, the powerful political advisor to Sonia Gandhi who passed away last year, controlled the reins of the party — directly or indirectly — for over two decades.
The absentee leadership in Gujarat Congress persisted far too long and gave an opportunity for the third player to find a toehold. The Gujarat results show that in politics as in life, vacuums are filled over a period of time. And having shown its ability to challenge the BJP in its stronghold, the AAP may emerge as the main repository of anti-BJP votes in the state.
Gujarat Win Gives BJP The Impetus To Fight Key 2023 Battles
For the BJP, a victory in the home state of its top leadership only strengthens its position at the Centre and in other states. It brings the necessary electoral relief that the party in power at the Centre often uses for sustenance and to reinforce its political authority. The BJP has been able to manage both caste and local compulsions to its advantage, weaning over some core Congress voters, especially the OBC community like Thakors.
The margin of victory provides the impetus to the party as it heads towards key battle states in 2023 where it will be in a direct contest against the Congress i.e. in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Karnataka. In all these provinces, the polity remains largely bipolar and unlike in Gujarat, the Congress has been able to maintain a fair supply of leadership at every level and across caste lines.
As for the Congress leadership, it is time to go back to the drawing board. The party has managed to survive and sustain only in states where its regional satraps remain active and in contention. The party has to act fast. Gujarat is the third state in the last seven years that has slipped out of its hands and landed on Arvind Kejariwal’s lap.
The author is an independent journalist who writes on politics and policy.
[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal.]
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