Cyclone Biparjoy To Intensify Into Very Severe Cyclonic Storm By Thursday. Assam, Kerala To Be Affected: IMD

Biparjoy that formed over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea lays about 890 km west-southwest of Goa is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm.

Biparjoy that formed over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea lays about 890 km west-southwest of Goa is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm.

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The severe cyclonic storm Biparjoy that formed over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea lays about 890 km west-southwest of Goa is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours, the India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday. Earlier, the IMD said the cyclonic storm will intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by Thursday morning and very severe cyclonic storm by Friday evening. This comes after the weather office in its morning bulletin had said that Cyclonic storm “Biparjoy” is  likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into Severe Cyclonic Storm today.

Severe Cyclonic storm Biparjoy over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea at 0530 IST of 07th June, near lat 12.6N and lon 66.1E, about 890km WSW of Goa. Likely to move nearly northwards and intensify into VSCS during next 24 hrs. pic.twitter.com/HFZl7ErcSe

— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) June 7, 2023

The Met Department has said that light/moderate fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning/gusty winds is likely in the parts of south, northeast, and northwest India.

In South India, light to moderate fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorm and lightning/gusty winds are predicted over Kerala, Lakshadweep, South Interior Karnataka; isolated to scattered activity over Coastal & North Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh during next 5 days.  Heavy rainfall is very likely at isolated places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Kerala during June 7 and June 11 and South Interior Karnataka during June 09 to June 11.

In Northeast India, IMD has said that light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning is very likely over the region during next 5 days. Isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Manipur and Mizoram on June 07 and Arunachal Pradesh,
Assam and Meghalaya on June 10 and June 11 and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on June 11.

In Northwest India, the weather office said, light/moderate isolated rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning is very likely over Northwest India on June 7. Thundersquall (speed 50-60 kmph) is likely over West Rajasthan on June 7 June. No significant weather is likely over rest parts of the country during next 5 days, IMD said in its bulletin.

Earlier on Monday, the weather office said that the formation of the low-pressure system over the southeast Arabian Sea and its intensification is expected to critically influence the advance of the monsoon towards the Kerala coast. The IMD, however, did not give a tentative date for the arrival of the monsoon in Kerala.

Private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said the monsoon onset over Kerala may happen on June 8 or June 9 but it is expected to be a "meek and mild entry," as reported by PTI. "These powerful weather systems in the Arabian Sea spoil the advancement of the monsoon deep inland. Under their influence, the monsoon stream may reach coastal parts but will struggle to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats," it said.

Skymet had earlier predicted the monsoon onset over Kerala on June 7 with an error margin of three days. "The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive within this bracket. Onset criteria require stipulated rainfall on two consecutive days over Lakshadweep, Kerala and coastal Karnataka. Accordingly, the spread and intensity of rainfall may match these requirements on June 8 or June 9. However, the onset of the annual event may not be loud and sound. It may only make a meek and mild entry to start with," the private weather forecasting agency said.

D S Pai, senior scientist, IMD, said Kerala received good rain on Monday too and conditions are favourable for the onset of monsoon over the next two to three days.

Southern peninsula will get rain under the influence of the cyclonic storm and a low-pressure system developing in the Bay of Bengal. However, further progress of the monsoon beyond the southern peninsula will happen after the cyclone degenerates, Pai said. The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days. In mid-May, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said monsoon might arrive in Kerala by June 4.

Scientists say a slightly delayed onset over Kerala does not mean that the monsoon will reach other parts of the country late. It also does not impact the total rainfall over the country during the season. India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions, the IMD had earlier said.

Northwest India is expected to see normal to below-normal rainfall. East and northeast, central, and south peninsula are expected to receive normal rainfall at 94-106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 centimetres.

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