Coronavirus | Home Quarantine Of Suspects Will Reduce Expected Number Of Cases By 62%: ICMR Study

Strictly implementing social distancing measures like home quarantine will reduce overall expected number of cases by 62% and peak number of cases by 89%,

SRINAGAR, INDIA - MARCH 22: A group of people in face masks, who returned from countries in the Middle East look out from a hotel in the city centre where they have been kept in quarantine, on March 22, 2020 in Srinagar, India. (Photo by Waseem Andrabi/via Getty Images)

New Delhi: As the country grapples to mitigate the impact of the deadly coronavirus pandemic, a study by the Indian Council Of Medical Research (ICMR) suggests that social distancing could prove pivotal in flattening the curve. Strictly implementing social distancing measures like home quarantine will reduce overall expected number of cases by 62% and peak number of cases by 89%, thus 'flattening' the curve, and  providing more opportunities for interventions, the study shows. Based on the initial understanding of the spread of COVID-19 infection, the mathematical modeling done by ICMR suggests that entry screening of travellers with symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 can delay the introduction of the virus into the community by three days to three weeks. Strictly implemented social distancing measures such as home quarantine of symptomatics and suspected cases will reduce the overall expected number of cases by 62% and the peak number of cases by 89%, thus “flattening” the curve and providing more opportunities for interventions. These model projections are subject to substantial uncertainty and can be further refined as more needs to be understood about the rate at which infection of this novel virus transmits among susceptible individuals. The coronavirus pandemic has claimed ten lives in India and has infected around 500 people across the nation. The World Health Organisation on Monday lauded the measures taken by the Indian government to contain the disease. In a statement released to the media, Dr Roderico Ofrin, Regional Emergencies Director, World Health Organization of South-East Asia region said: "India has been rolling out a comprehensive and robust response to prevent and contain the spread of COVID-19. "Its latest announcements related to quarantine and social distancing measures, including recent lockdown of 75 affected districts, suspension of rail, inter-state bus services and metro services are initiatives of unprecedented scale and reflect the country's resolve to prevent the spread of the pandemic." These measures can help slow down the virus transmission along with the continued effective measures being taken to isolate, test, treat and trace. The World Health Organisation, also leads an emphasis on social distancing. ‘Maintain at least 1 metre (3 feet) distance between yourself and anyone who is coughing or sneezing, WHO says. ‘When someone coughs or sneezes they spray small liquid droplets from their nose or mouth which may contain virus. If you are too close, you can breathe in the droplets, including the COVID-19 virus if the person coughing has the disease,’ it says.