BJP set to sweep Uttarakhand, may get 34-42 seats: ABP News exit poll

NEW DELHI: Uttarakhand might just be headed for a change of government in the 2017 Assembly elections.  According to ABP News' exit poll, BJP may bag 34-42 seats in the 70-member Assembly, reducing the incumbent Congress to 24-19 seats. In a state where wafer-thin majorities are the norm, a decisive mandate in favor of any one party seems unlikely. However, this election may have broken the jinx, with the BJP likely to emerge on top in Uttarakhand by a comfortable margin according to ABP News-CSDS exit poll. The party is expected to corner two-fifths (40 percent) of the popular vote. The Congress, fighting to retain its position as the ruling party, is trailing with an estimated vote share of 35 percent. The survey was conducted between February 17 and 24 among 1859 respondents spread across 20 randomly selected assembly constituencies. The BJP is expected to register its biggest gains in Garhwal, a region which has time and again complained of neglect under Chief Minister Harish Rawat’s tenure, who hails from Kumaon. With an estimated vote share of 52 percent, the party has virtually no competition in this region. It also seems to have capitalized on the strong anti-incumbency sentiment here, with an overwhelming majority of voters (59 percent) being opposed to giving a second chance to the Rawat government. The contest much closer in the Kumaon and Maidan regions, but even here the BJP is expected to give a tough fight to the incumbent. It is likely to secure about 35 percent of the vote in Kumaon, as against 36 percent of the Congress. In what may give the Congress a shot in the arm, the survey found that the party’s Chief Ministerial face to be the most popular choice for Uttarakhand’s next Chief Minister. About two in five (37 percent) voters said they would prefer Harish Rawat as the next CM, compared to BJP leader and ex-CM B.C. Khanduri, who was spontaneous preference of only 16 percent voters. However, given the strong current of anti-incumbency against his government, it is unlikely that Rawat’s leadership will be enough to salvage the Congress from facing defeat at the hands of a resurgent BJP. Moreover the BJP seems to be benefitting from the combined strength of its other leaders, many of whom are former Congressmen.