Stall, Engine Failure Or More? Three Theories In Ajit Pawar Plane Crash

Fresh CCTV footage of the Baramati Learjet crash has sparked new theories as investigators await black box data for clarity.

The Learjet 45 was operated by VSR Ventures Pvt Ltd and had taken off from Mumbai at 8:10 a.m.

Source : PTI

A newly surfaced video capturing the final seconds of the Learjet 45 that crashed near Baramati has added fresh momentum to the investigation into one of Maharashtra’s worst aviation tragedies in recent years. The aircraft, registered as VT-SSK, went down on Wednesday morning, killing Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar and four others on board.

While the dramatic footage has prompted aviation experts to outline possible causes, investigators have urged caution, stressing that firm conclusions can only be drawn after a detailed examination of flight data and cockpit voice recordings retrieved from the aircraft’s black box, which was recovered on Thursday.

What CCTV Footage Shows

The CCTV clip, believed to have been recorded near the airport perimeter, appears to show the business jet losing stability moments before impact. Visuals suggest the aircraft’s left wing dropped abruptly, followed by a sudden sideways snap in midair, before it crashed and burst into flames near Baramati airport’s single runway.

The Learjet 45 was operated by VSR Ventures Pvt Ltd and had taken off from Mumbai at 8:10 a.m. On board were Ajit Pawar, his security officer Vidip Jadhav, Captain Sumit Kapoor, First Officer Shambhavi Pathak, and flight attendant Pinky Mali. As the jet approached Baramati, air traffic control advised the crew of visibility of around three kilometres, conditions generally considered adequate for landing.

Baramati Accident: Final Approach

During the first landing attempt, the pilots informed controllers they were unable to visually acquire the runway and were told to execute a go-around. Clearance for a second approach was granted at around 8:34 a.m. Shortly after, the aircraft stopped transmitting signals. Minutes later, it crashed close to the airport, sending shockwaves across the state.

The absence of any distress call in the final moments has become a key focus area for investigators, as it may help narrow down what unfolded inside the cockpit during the critical phase of flight.

Ajit Pawar's Plane Crash: Theories Under Examination

Aviation specialists have outlined three broad possibilities. One is an aerodynamic stall, particularly an asymmetric stall, which can occur in aircraft with tail-mounted engines such as the Learjet 45. In such scenarios, one wing can lose lift before the other, leading to a sudden and violent roll. Investigators have drawn parallels with past international accidents involving similar aircraft designs.

Another scenario under review is engine failure, which can cause pronounced yaw and roll if corrective action is delayed. However, experts note that the lack of a mayday call reduces the likelihood of a sudden mechanical failure. A third possibility is a sharp banking manoeuvre attempted to visually align with the runway, a risk compounded by Baramati airport’s limited navigational aids.

Federation of Indian Pilots president CS Randhawa said the video evidence appeared to support the stall theory but reiterated that only a comprehensive probe would establish the exact chain of events, as reported by Hindustan Times. Investigators, meanwhile, continue to piece together data from multiple sources to determine what led to the fatal crash.