ABP-CVoter Survey: Will Punjab Congress Crisis Benefit AAP & SAD-BSP Alliance In Election? Know Latest Projections

ABP News, in partnership with CVoter, conducted a survey to understand the mood of the people of Punjab ahead of the elections in 2022.

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ABP CVoter Survey for Punjab Election 2022: Punjab is scheduled to go to assembly elections next year along with other states such as Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur. 

The contest is crucial for the Congress party as Punjab remains one of its few remaining strongholds, however, whether the recent leadership crisis has impacted its prospects in the state remains to be seen. 

After the long power tussle between Amarinder Singh and Navjot Singh Sindhu, the former, in an unexpected turn of events, resigned from the post of Chief Minister in September. He accused the Congress party of humiliating him.

Citing Sidhu’s friendship with Pakistan PM Imran Khan and Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa, the former Punjab CM also termed his rival as a “threat to national security” with Punjab being a border state.

While Congress appeared to have settled the crisis by appointing Charanjit Singh Channi as the state’s first Dalit Chief Minister, it faced another unexpected blow with Navjot Sidhu resigning from the post of Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee’s president.

Sidhu and CM Charanjit appear to have reached common ground with respect to his grievances over the new cabinet, however, the crisis still raised questions over the stability of the Congress leadership in the state.

Meanwhile, AAP and SAD-BSP alliance have been targetting Congress over its 2017 poll promises and leadership issues. So the upcoming contest will reveal whether the change in guard along with a very public power tussle has impacted the ruling party’s ability to win voters’ trust in the state.

ABP News, in partnership with CVoter, conducted a survey to understand the mood of the people of Punjab ahead of the elections.

Vote Share

According to the survey, INC, which won 38.5 per cent votes in the 2017 election, is expected to win 31.8 per cent votes in next year’s election, an increase of 3 per cent from the projections in September.

On the other hand, AAP, which won 23.7 per cent votes in the 2017 election, can potentially win 35.9 per cent votes, an increase of 0.8 per cent as compared to the previous projection.

Meanwhile, the SAD-BSP alliance can gain 22.5 per cent votes. The BJP appears to have lost further in the estimates, as it is expected to gain only 3.8 per cent votes in the upcoming election, even less than the vote share that is predicted for others (6 per cent).

Range Of Seats

According to the survey, INC which was expected to win 38 to 46 seats in September, can win 39 to 47 seats as per the latest prediction.

However, in the fresh projections, AAP continues to claim more seats as it is expected to secure 49 to 55 seats, a reduction as compared to 51 to 57 seats predicted in September.

Meanwhile, the SAD-BSP alliance can win 17 to 25 seats, seeing a marginal increase from the September predictions.

On the other hand, it continues to be a poor show for the BJP with 0 to 1 seats predicted.

So while AAP can still dent the Congress party’s seats and vote share, the recent leadership crisis does not seem to have made a drastic impact in terms of further gains for opposition parties. Meanwhile, permutations and combinations can change drastically by the time the assembly elections approach.

[Disclaimer: The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 98000+ across 5 states (UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa, and Manipur) & the survey was carried out during the period 4th September 2021 to 4th October 2021. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.]