India-China LAC Clash May Escalate Calling For America’s Intervention, US Intel Report Says

US report also says that under the leadership of PM Modi India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real provocations from Pakistan in Kashmir.

A threat assessment report by the US Intelligence said the ongoing border dispute between India and China along the LAC might escalate calling for America’s intervention in the coming days.

Source : PTI

New Delhi: The ongoing border dispute between India and China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) might escalate in the coming days calling for America’s intervention, says a threat assessment report by the US Intelligence. 

 

The report — Annual Threat Assessment — was released Wednesday by the Office of The Director of National Intelligence. 

 

“While India and China have engaged in bilateral border talks and resolved border points, relations will remain strained in the wake of the countries’ lethal clash in 2020, the most serious in decades,” the report said. 

 

It added: “The expanded military postures by both India and China along the disputed border elevate the risk of armed confrontation between two nuclear powers that might involve direct threats to U.S. persons and interests, and calls for U.S. intervention.”

 

The report noted that previous standoffs between India and China have demonstrated that persistent low-level friction on the LAC has the “potential to escalate swiftly”.

 

The report reflects the collective insights of America’s intelligence community and the inputs are being given to US’ policymakers, warfighters, and domestic law enforcement personnel in an effort to protect American lives and their interests anywhere in the world. The report gives a potential threat analysis for 2023.

 

The report has also cited climate change and environment degradation as a threat to the US’ national security.

 

In that context, the US believes that China and India will play critical roles.

 

“China and India will play critical roles in determining the trajectory of temperature rise. They are the first and third largest emitting countries, respectively. Both are growing their total and per capita emissions, largely because of their reliance on cheap electricity generation from coal for economic growth, and because of their efforts to appease domestic constituencies who rely on the coal industry for jobs,” said the report.

 

It also said: “Intensifying effects from climate change are likely to exacerbate risks to human health, primarily but not exclusively, in low- and middle-income countries.”

 

The report noted that rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and increased frequency and severity of weather events are likely to intersect with environmental degradation, pollution, and poor water governance to exacerbate food and water insecurity, malnutrition, and overall burden of disease.

 

Kashmir A Potential Flashpoint 

 

The US intel report also highlighted the looming tensions between India and Pakistan might escalate even as dangers of a terrorist attack in Kashmir remains high.

 

“Crises between India and Pakistan are of particular concern because of the risk of an escalatory cycle between two nuclear-armed states,” the report highlighted. 

 

It said that New Delhi and Islamabad probably are “inclined to reinforce the current calm in their relationship following both sides’ renewal of a cease-fire along the Line of Control in early 2021”.

 

“However, Pakistan has a long history of supporting anti-India militant groups, and under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations,” it underlined. 

 

This is because, US’ intel analysis said, each side’s perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints.

 

The report also talked about China’s growing assertiveness on Taiwan and how the Xi Jinping government is using “coordinated, whole-of-government tools to demonstrate strength and compel neighbors to acquiesce to its preferences, including its land, sea, and air claims in the region and its assertions of sovereignty” on Taiwan.

 

On Russia, which is now seen as the biggest threat, the report said, “Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine is a tectonic event that is reshaping Russia’s relationships with the West and China, and more broadly in ways that are unfolding and remain highly uncertain.“

 

It added: “Moscow will remain a formidable and less predictable challenge to the United States in key areas during the next decade but still will face a range of constraints. Russia will continue to pursue its interests in competitive and sometimes confrontational and provocative ways, including by using military force as it has against Ukraine and pressing to dominate other countries in the post–Soviet space to varying extents.”