Karnataka Election 2023: 6 Key Factors That Could Impact Voter Choice

With the Election Commission sounding the poll bugle for the 2023 Karnataka Assembly election, we take a look at the factors that could impact voters' choices.

Yediyurappa, Kumaraswamy, and Siddaramaiah are going to be crucial for their respective parties.

Karnataka's first opinion poll for the 2023 assembly elections, the ABP-CVoter survey, has projected a clear win for the Congress. The election is scheduled to be held on May 10. While the Congress is looking to ride an anti-incumbency wave, the BJP is hopeful of bucking the trend of Karnataka not repeating a government since 1980. The JD(S) also hopes to return to power with its last attempt at retaining power with a minority government failing in 2019 after a 429-day stint.

So, what are the factors that could tip the scales in favour of the Congress or JD(S) or help the BJP retain power in Karnataka?

1. THE TRIO OF CURRENT KARNATAKA POLITICS

The most important factor is the trio of Siddaramaiah, Yediyurappa, and HD Deve Gowda, and, by extension, his son HD Kumaraswamy. The three have been extremely important to Karnataka's politics, who are known to be alliance builders in the state. 

While Siddaramaiah emerged as a clear choice to be the next CM in the ABP-CVoter survey, Yediyurappa will be crucial for the BJP as the party found out the hard way after his brief exit in 2012. The BJP was then reduced from 110 seats to 40. The father-son duo of HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy will be instrumental for the JD(S) if the party hopes to come back to power.

2. PM MODI AND CM BOMMAI'S IMAGE

The next factor would be Prime Minister Narendra Modi's image in the state. While Chief Minister Basavaraj  Bommai has failed to live up to the expectations of the voters, according to the ABP-CVoter survey, PM Modi's image is largely intact. Although a majority of the respondents in the survey preferred not to have CM Bommai continue in his post, they were satisfied with the Centre under PM Modi.

3. CORRUPTION & MISGOVERNANCE

The third factor that could work against the BJP and for the Congress is the alleged misgovernance. Various governance issues in the areas of Covid management, urban development, and corruption have plagued the BJP government, giving rise to a sense of anti-incumbency as the ABP-CVoter survey revealed. The Congress may think of cashing in on this opportunity to run several anti-government campaigns, like they did with the “PayCM” and “40% government” campaigns. Any impact of these campaigns will definitely have the ruling party worried.

The sense of anti-incumbency could be seen in response of the 33.3% respondents in the ABP-CVoter survey that was conducted among 24,759 eligible voters across Karnataka. 

4. INFIGHTING

Factional feuds are likely to affect both the Congress and the BJP. While Yediyurappa is being met with stiff opposition from party colleagues, Congress's Siddaramaiah was seemingly locked in a direct battle with state unit chief DK Shivakumar. 

The anger of some BJP leaders against Yediyurappa, which eventually led to his resignation in 2021, is yet to abate. Even recently, when the BJP leader said that his son Vijayendra would be contesting the Shikaripura assembly seat, national secretary of the party CT Ravi retorted that candidates are decided in the party's parliamentary board meetings and "not in someone's kitchen".

In the Congress, Shivakumar and party president in the state DK Shivakumar were being seen as strong contenders for the CM face. The ABP-CVoter survey, however, projected Siddaramaiah as the top choice, surpassing even BJP candidates. While Siddaramaiah during his tenure as CM pushed for the recognition of Lingayat as a separate religion, Shivakumar sought to drum up Vokkaliga support for himself. The Congress has, however, denied any claims of rift. The elevation of Mallikarjun Kharge, who is from Karnataka, to the post of Congress president seems to have played a role in reining in differences between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar to some extent.

5. RELIGIOUS POLARISATION

The ABP-CVoter survey found that the most impactful topic on the voters' agenda was religious polarisation. The BJP seems to have realised this factor. With BS Yediyurappa, who enjoys the support of the Lingayat community, facing stiff opposition from several party leaders, the BJP is trying hard to get its balancing act right. While it made Yediyurappa its poll mascot, it scrapped the 2% reservation for Muslims under the 2B category of the backward classes in the state, reallocating the quota to the Vokkaligas and Lingayats under the 2C and 2D categories. The move is being seen as a last-ditch effort to drum up support for a larger "Hindutva" ideology.

6. ALLIANCES AND JD(S) AS KINGMAKER

The ABP-CVoter survey projected a Congress win, with the BJP coming in second in the opinion poll. While the Congress is likely to get 115-127, 68-80 seats have been projected for the BJP, according to the survey. With a seat range of 23-35 JD(S) could well become the kingmaker.

Since its inception, JD(S) has never formed a government on its own. However, it did form coalition governments in 2006 with the BJP and with the Congress in 2018. Smaller parties would have little impact, if not divide votes and disrupt traditional vote banks. Although the Congress has ruled out an alliance with JD(S) in the 2023 assembly polls, the role of Kumaraswamy's party would be big.