Muslim Factor Still Key In Bihar Polls? Here's What Data Suggests
Historically, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has enjoyed overwhelming Muslim support, often securing 70-80% of the community’s vote in alliances perceived as secular.
The Muslim factor continues to be one of the most debated and closely watched elements of Bihar’s political landscape. With around 17 to 18 percent of the state’s population identifying as Muslim, their vote has historically played a decisive role in shaping electoral outcomes. The question today, however, is whether this “Muslim factor” still holds the same political weight it once did, or whether changing alliances, shifting aspirations, and local issues are rewriting the equation ahead of the Bihar Assembly elections 2025.
From the densely populated districts of Seemanchal-Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia, and Katihar, to pockets across North and Central Bihar, the community’s vote often becomes the deciding factor in dozens of closely contested seats. However, the nature of Muslim political engagement is changing. Once viewed as a consolidated bloc loyal to “secular” parties, today’s Muslim electorate is more nuanced, driven by issues of identity, development, and dignity rather than rhetoric alone.
Do Muslims Still Matter in Bihar’s Electoral Arithmetic?
Yes, and perhaps more than ever, but not in the old ways. The Muslim factor remains crucial because of demographic concentration and electoral geography. In at least 87 assembly constituencies, Muslims play a decisive role, while in another 40 seats, they have enough numbers to influence the outcome. The Seemanchal belt alone carries 24 seats where the Muslim vote is decisive.
Historically, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has enjoyed overwhelming Muslim support, often securing 70-80% of the community’s vote in alliances perceived as secular. But over time, fragmentation has appeared, partly due to shifting coalitions, and partly because younger Muslims are demanding performance, not just promises. The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has capitalised on this sentiment in pockets of Seemanchal, presenting itself as a voice of assertive Muslim representation. Still, the RJD and Congress-led bloc remain the preferred choice for most Muslim voters who view them as a bulwark against the BJP.
The Key Issues Driving Muslim Voting Behaviour
Muslims in Bihar are no longer guided solely by religious identity. Economic survival, education, and employment dominate their concerns. In regions like Seemanchal, persistent poverty, migration, and lack of opportunities have created a growing impatience with political lip service. Voters repeatedly cite jobs, better schools, health facilities, and local industry as priorities for the 2025 election.
At the same time, identity and rights-based issues still resonate deeply. The Waqf (Amendment) Bill has stirred anxiety over government interference in community assets, while reports of voter list deletions in Muslim-majority districts have triggered fears of exclusion. The persistent under-representation of Muslim candidates by mainstream parties heightens the community’s sense of political marginalisation.
Muslim MLAs in Bihar Assembly
In 2010, Bihar had 19 Muslim MLAs in its Assembly. This number rose to 24 in 2015, following the alliance between JD(U) and RJD. However, by 2020, the count fell back to 19 when the two parties contested separately.
In the 2020 elections, eight of the 18 RJD Muslim candidates were victorious, while four of the 12 Congress candidates won. The remaining seven Muslim MLAs came from BSP, CPIML, and AIMIM, led by Asaduddin Owaisi. Notably, four of AIMIM’s MLAs later joined the RJD, indicating fluidity in political loyalties. The 2020 results also suggested that Muslim voters were willing to back candidates across party lines. In 2025, analysts will again be closely observing the AIMIM factor and the number of candidates it fields.
Why Muslim Votes Remain Politically Indispensable
Despite fragmentation, the Muslim electorate continues to be one of the most decisive voting blocs in Bihar. Their ability to swing outcomes in around hundred constituencies means no party can afford to ignore them. For the opposition, Muslim consolidation can translate into electoral dominance; for the NDA, even marginal inroads could alter seat equations in tight races.
The Muslim vote in Bihar is changing. Voters are moving from voting out of loyalty to voting based on real issues. While identity still matters, the community now considers which parties deliver on governance and representation. In a state where elections are closely contested and alliances often shift, the Muslim vote may not be as uniform as before, but it still plays a key role in deciding who wins and who loses.
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