Will State Results Decide 2024 Winner? What Elections 2023 Tell Us About Lok Sabha Prospects Of BJP And Congress

PM Narendra Modi waves to party workers and supporters as arrives at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi on December 3, 2023, to attend celebrations after the party's victory in elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

Source : PTI

The results of the semi-final elections are out, and the BJP has won three states (+2), Congress one state (-1), and regional parties one state (-1). Since these state election results are coming just four months before the general elections scheduled to be held in April next year, it is bound to have a psychological impact. Though state and national elections are different, and voters exhibit different patterns and behaviours, it's still natural to draw comparisons, parallels and conclusions. 

The five states that just elected new governments — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram — send 116 MPs to Parliament (21 percent of its strength), and hence carry significance. The BJP won 67 of these seats in 2019, and on 54 of them had recorded a vote share of over 50%.  The main contenders are the BJP and the Congress, and with the BJP winnning the one-on-one direct contest states against the Congress 3-0 and that too in the Hindi heartland states, the fight seizes momentum going into 2024. 

In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP and the Congress were locked in a one-on-one contest on 190 seats — including many in these three states — and the BJP won 175 of them. The assembly election results will hence boost the confidence of cadres and leaders. 

What Do Trends Of Past Elections Show? 

Let's analyse the trend of the last three pairs of elections — 2008-09, 2013-14 and 2018-19. In the 2008-09 cycle, the Lok Sabha results mirrored the state election results in all states. In 2013-14, all states in general elections again repeated the state elections trend. In the 2018-19 election cycle, the BJP lost three big states of Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh to the Congress, but came back strongly three months later in the general elections, sweeping these states.  

In terms of seats and assembly leads, we observe that the party's tally in Lok Sabha is generally higher in the 2008-09 and 2013-14 election cycles, except Madhya Pradesh (2008-09). The BJP reversed the trend in 2018-19, more than doubling its 2018 tally in 2019 assembly leads. This was largely on account of the Modi factor. Leadership and party symbols play a far bigger role in national elections than state elections where the local candidate matters the most.

The BJP victory in the three states this time strengthens the narrative that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is still the most popular leader, people have faith in his delivery model, and that the beneficiary factor is working on the ground. 

The Congress party’s narrative that Modi’s popularity is declining, Rahul Gandhi is closing the leadership ratings gap, Modi has mishandled the economy, caste census demand is gaining ground, or agriculture is in distress may be either not getting traction on the ground or needs a big push to gain acceptance among voters in the Hindi heartland. 

The Congress party’s victory in Telangana shows that these factors may actually be working south of Vindhya. The Gandhi family enjoys good support in  South India and the party needs Priyanka Gandhi to focus here as there is strong recall of 'Indira Amma' in the minds of poor families. 

Rahul, who was trailing by 30%-40% points in the three Hindi heartland states, closes the gap to just 5% in “Who should be PM” ratings. The party needs to consolidate its gains in Telangana and Karnataka. However, Andhra Pradesh, where there are 25 Lok Sabha seats, is currently a nought that poses significant risks. In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, Congress and its allies have already maxed out, leaving no scope for gains. 

A psychological boost for BJP ahead of 2024 while amongst disappointments something to cheer for the Congress as well. 

The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.

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