BJP’s 8 Seats In Telangana No Mean Achievement Ahead Of 2024, Kamareddy Is Cherry On The Cake

Union Minister and Telangana BJP chief G. Kishan Reddy with party candidate from Kamareddy Venkata Ramana Reddy who defeated CM KCR, in Hyderabad on December 3, 2023.

Source : PTI

Telangana Verdict: This is one election result in Telangana that the BJP will be very pleased with – it has won eight assembly seats for the first time, and more importantly, increased its vote share to nearly 14 percent from 6 percent in its last outing. Even more important from its perspective is the fact that the BJP’s preparations for Lok Sabha elections from Telangana will get a significant boost as 18 of its candidates stood second and it got above 10 percent votes in half of the total 119 seats. That’s no mean achievement for a party that has minimal presence in the state. And the cherry on the cake came in the form of BJP candidate Venkata Ramana Reddy’s victory from Kamareddy where he defeated both sitting Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao and the probable new CM, Revanth Reddy.  

The outcome in Telangana is a message to the regional parties that they now cannot afford to disregard or discount the BJP’s presence, as its ability to make or mar the prospects of the other parties in fray stands proven. 

A more detailed and in-depth analysis into the results would show that the BJP damaged the ruling BRS in many seats, but also helped it a bit in the urban pockets. It split the anti-establishment vote in and around Hyderabad and its surroundings, but the same BJP’s presence in rural areas harmed the BRS more than it hurt the chances of Congress candidates. 

The BJP’s showing in the Telugu-speaking state of Telangana is sure to pep the party and its cadres ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Now that the BJP has demonstrated that it can cut the BRS to size, it can eventually force it to cooperate with the NDA during the national elections due next year. 

However, it will be a call that the BJP will have to take whether it wants to be closely associated with the BRS as there is a lot of anger against the party in rural areas, which can rub off on the BJP as well. In the current elections, the BJP and the BRS were fighting the elections on their own, but the Congress managed to drive home the point that the two parties were in some sort of an arrangement and that they were actually one team. 

Regional Party BRS Now Under BJP’s Thumb Ahead Of LS Polls 

Clearly, the BRS loss is bad news for the regional party and the ‘national ambitions’ it was nurturing. This loss puts paid to its chances in the Lok Sabha elections, and also places the regional formation at the mercy of the BJP and the Central government, as it would be targeted for alleged corruption from the new state government headed by the Congress. 

For the BJP, this could be a positive to have a regional party under its thumb. There is a possibility of an unwritten understanding and behind-the-scenes coalition of the BJP, BRS and AIMIM for the Lok Sabha elections so that the 2019 performance is repeated – but with a twist. The BJP will now be angling for more seats than the four it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. 

What can put a scare in both the BRS and the Congress is the loss of Chief Minister KCR and aspiring CM Revanth Reddy from the Congress to BJP greenhorn Katipally Venkata Ramana Reddy, a businessman-turned-politician. This is the kind of outcome that an actual and strong triangular contest in Telangana could mean. 

For the present, the BJP’s eleventh-hour strategy is to make the contest a near bipartite fight, and a very weak triangular contest, in an apparent bid to thwart the victory of Congress. The BJP had realised that a stronger showing of the BJP could help the Congress win a few constituencies as it could damage the chances of either the Congress or the BRS but had no strength to win the seats on its own. It was perhaps this realisation that was behind the change in strategy and the replacement of an aggressive BJP president in Bandi Sanjay with a relatively calmer Union minister G Kishan Reddy. 

Harathi Vageesan, a political analyst in Hyderabad, is of the view that the BJP could have achieved a higher vote percentage of up to 17 percent and won 14-15 seats of its own in the November 30 assembly election. But had it mounted and persisted with the kind of aggressive campaign that Bandi Sanjay led against the ruling BRS, chances were it would have ironically helped the Congress win more seats with ease.  

However, with the eight BJP seats now getting added to the opposition kitty, and the Congress having a thin majority, many in both the BJP and the BRS may be wondering when an opportunity could come up to overthrow the Congress government. 

For sure, this is one worry that is plaguing the Congress that must worry over the longevity of its government. 

But contrary to this apprehension of the Congress, said Vageesan, there was a chance that the BRS could see a vertical split with half of the MLAs going to the Congress.

It would, of course, be interesting to see how the BJP and the Congress fight it out in Telangana with the Congress government trying to fulfill its promises and the BJP MLAs, backed by its central leadership, challenging the state government. 

Big Challenge For Congress 

The Congress will be under pressure because its Telangana government will have less than four months to perform. A negative perception about its brand-new government could cost the party dear in the Lok Sabha elections due in May 2024. 

The Congress had managed to create an impression among the minds of the people of Telangana that the BJP, the BRS and the AIMIM were one team, and this narrative worked in its favour in some constituencies. 

For the BJP, this Telangana outing was profitable as it doubled its vote share and won eight seats, as compared to one in the previous assembly elections. 

Union minister G Kishan Reddy said after the results: "I would say that we have done well in Telangana. We polled more votes as compared to the last Assembly elections in 2018 and also doubled our vote percentage from 6.10 per cent (in 2018) to more than 14 per cent this time. Also, we could win just one seat last time but our tally is up to 8 this time."

"Our candidate from Kamareddy, Venkata Ramana Reddy, did very well as he prevailed over heavyweight opponents KCR and Revanth Reddy," Kishan Reddy said. 

The author is a Bengaluru-based senior journalist.

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