ElectionWatch: Exit Polls Suggest BJP Edge in Bengal, Strong Lead Also Projected in Assam

As India awaits final counting on May 4, exit poll projections have set the stage for a high-stakes political showdown across multiple states, with special focus on West Bengal and Assam. The results are being viewed as an early indicator of the 2026 political landscape, with intense competition between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the All India Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee. In West Bengal, aggregated exit poll data—often referred to as the “poll of polls”—suggests a possible advantage for the BJP. Several projections indicate that the party could cross the majority mark of 148 seats in the 294-member assembly, with estimates placing it around 150+ seats. Meanwhile, the Trinamool Congress is projected to remain a strong competitor but may fall short of the majority threshold in some models, with estimates ranging around the low 130s. However, analysts emphasize that these figures are only projections and not final outcomes. Exit polls are based on sampling methods and can vary significantly from actual results, depending on voter turnout and regional shifts. In Assam, most exit polls consistently suggest a strong performance for the BJP-led alliance, with projections indicating a comfortable majority well above the required 64-seat mark in the 126-member assembly. Several surveys suggest that the BJP could even secure a third consecutive term, with estimated seat ranges between the high 80s and 100+. The combined “poll of polls” for Assam reinforces this trend, indicating a clear lead for the BJP alliance over opposition parties. Despite these projections, the final verdict will depend entirely on vote counting, which remains the only official and decisive outcome.