Russia-Ukraine War Could Lead To Rise In Global Hunger, Carbon Emissions: Study
If the Russia-Ukraine conflict significantly reduces Ukrainian grain exports, rising prices could increase global hunger, food insecurity and carbon dioxide emissions, the study says.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war could result in a chain reaction that affects food supply, a new study predicts. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict significantly reduces Ukrainian grain exports, rising prices could increase global hunger, food insecurity and carbon dioxide emissions, the study says. This is because marginal land, which is land having little or no agricultural or industrial value, is pushed into crop production in the wake of the war.
A research team from Iowa State University predicted the chain reaction. The findings about these projections were recently published in the journal Nature Food.
Amani Elobeid, a teaching professor of economics at Iowa State University, and her colleagues ran their models shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February. They ran the models in order to estimate the impact of the war on global grain markets and the subsequent climate implications.
In a statement released by Iowa State University, Elobeid said the researchers are trying to present a more complete picture of what the Russia-Ukraine war is costing the world.
Ukraine is called the “breadbasket of Europe”
Ukraine, often called the "breadbasket of Europe", is a major exporter of wheat and corn. A deal was struck with Russia in Ukraine with the aim to allow Ukrainian grain shipments. However, it is unclear how effective the deal will be at limiting the Russia-Ukraine war's impact on exports, the study states.
What are the potential impacts of the war on Ukrainian exports?
The researchers examined four potential outcomes as part of the study. One of the potential outcomes is a 50 per cent drop in Ukrainian exports. The other potential outcomes are related responses, including a reduction in biofuel production in the United States and Europe, and a 50 per cent drop in Russian grain exports.
According to the study, the researchers' models estimate how changes in global agricultural markets impact production, trade, food consumption and prices. These factors affect what land is used for crops.
How do spikes in food prices affect farming and food security?
For instance, when the price of corn rises due to a shortage, dense Brazilian forests are more likely to be razed for farming. This is because there is an incentive to expand production.
The study estimates that depending on the scenario, the cost of wheat would rise up to 7.2 per cent, while the cost of corn could rise up to 4.6 per cent. These spikes would be on top of already rising food costs, Elobeid said. This would disproportionately worsen hunger in poorer countries like Africa and the Middle East. These are regions which are heavily dependent on grain imports from Ukraine.
Elobeid said in the United States, an additional five per cent increase in food prices might not be alarming. However, in countries that are extremely poor and have high levels of food insecurity, even a one per cent increase is very significant.
Use of new land for agriculture will lead to increased carbon emissions
The amount of new land used worldwide for growing crops under the scenarios studied would range from 16.3 million to 45 million acres, the study estimates. This would cause an average estimated increase in carbon emissions between 527 million and 1.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.
What are the possible solutions?
Increased subsidies for lower-income households in wealthier countries would help counteract higher food prices. However, this is not an option in poorer nations, Elobeid said.
According to the study, grain prices worldwide could be reduced by removing trade restrictions and implementing policies such as temporarily reducing biofuel mandates. These steps would also limit land-use changes that drive up carbon emissions.
Elobeid said that the "obvious solution is for the conflict to end".
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