US President Polls: Kamala Harris, Trump Deadlocked At 49% Amid Deep Gender & Issue Divides, Final NBC Poll Says

US Presidential Election 2024: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied at 49% in the latest NBC News poll. Harris leads on abortion and middle-class issues, while Trump leads on economic concerns.

File Photo of Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump

Source : X/@VP | Getty Images

US Presidential Election 2024: In the final national NBC News poll of the 2024 U.S. presidential race, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are neck and neck, each securing support from 49% of registered voters. Only 2% of voters remain undecided, underscoring the polarised nature of the electorate ahead of the election.

Harris’ support has been boosted by growing Democratic enthusiasm, particularly on the issue of abortion, where she holds a 20-point lead over Trump. Additionally, she is seen as the candidate who more effectively “looks out for the middle class.” Conversely, Trump is buoyed by voter dissatisfaction, with two-thirds of respondents stating the country is “headed in the wrong direction,” along with a positive retrospective view of his presidency compared to Joe Biden’s current performance. Trump maintains a double-digit lead over Harris on economic issues, including handling the cost of living.

The NBC News poll was conducted from October 30 to November 2, surveying 1,000 registered voters, and has a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.

US Presidential Election 2024: Gender, Demographic, Issue-Based Divides To Decide Fate Of Kamala Harris And Donald Trump

The poll indicates a substantial gender divide, with women preferring Harris by a margin of 16 points (57%-41%), while men favour Trump by 18 points (58%-40%). This 34-point gender gap surpasses the 30-point gap recorded in October, showing the widening of distinct demographic alignments. According to NBC, Analysts Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates and Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies noted, “Each side is as locked down as it gets, and they don’t budge or move.”

On an expanded ballot that includes third-party candidates, Trump stands at 47% and Harris at 46%, with 7% either supporting other candidates or remaining undecided. In hypothetical scenarios, even minor changes in turnout among key demographics could alter the outcome. A slightly higher turnout among men, white voters, and voters without college degrees could give Trump a 50%-48% edge. Conversely, increased turnout among women, college-educated white voters, and voters of colour could push Harris ahead by 50%-47% as per the NBC News poll.

Both candidates show significant support from different demographics. Harris has overwhelming backing among Black voters (87%-9%), young voters under 30 (57%-41%), and white college-educated voters (55%-43%). Trump, meanwhile, leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%), and white voters without college degrees (64%-34%).

Issue-based differences are also marked: Harris leads on abortion by 20 points and has a nine-point advantage on middle-class issues (51%-42%). Trump, however, holds strong leads on economic issues, including handling the cost of living (52%-40%) and immigration, where he maintains a 25-point advantage.

The poll underscores the challenging environment for Harris, with Biden’s approval rating at 41% versus a 58% disapproval. When asked about their concerns, 41% of voters worry about Harris continuing Biden’s policies, while 40% are concerned about Trump replicating his first-term approach, NBC News poll informed. Additionally, Trump’s job approval among voters stands at 48%, slightly higher than Biden’s.

A significant 54% of registered voters have already cast ballots, with another 11% planning to vote early. Among early voters, Harris leads by seven points (53%-46%), a narrower lead than Biden had in 2020. Conversely, Trump holds a 16-point lead among voters who intend to cast ballots on Election Day (56%-40%).

Regardless of the final outcome, 60% of voters believe the United States will remain divided post-election, reflecting the intense polarisation evident in the poll results.