ABP News Cvoter Survey: BJP Likely To Reign For Second Consecutive Term In Goa & Manipur

ABP News along with C-Voter conducted a survey to gauge the mood of voters, who will once again exercise their franchise to select the next legislative assembly whose term ends next year.

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New Delhi: In the year 2022, Assembly elections are to be held in seven states. Assembly Polls are due in Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Manipur, Uttarakhand, and Punjab in February-March, while Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat can have assembly elections in November-December.

With the battlefield getting ready for state Assembly elections, in Goa and Manipur, it is going to wait and watch for the Congress which will be leaving no stone unturned to come back in power after emerging as the single largest party in both state elections in 2017. But in both the states, the Congress party failed to secure power after the BJP forged alliance. 

ABP News along with C-Voter conducted a survey to gauge the mood of voters, who will once again exercise their franchise to select the next legislative assembly whose term ends next year.

Trouble brewed for the BJP-led government of Biren Singh after six MLAs withdrew their support while three BJP legislators quit the party and joined the Congress on June 17.

However, CM N Biren Singh won the trust vote by a comfortable margin of 28-16 on August 10 and the six Congress leaders had submitted their resignation from the Assembly soon after it.

ABP-CVoter Survey, September 2021 Predictions Manipur:

Under party alliance votes, ABP-CVoter Survey projected that INC will get 34.5 percent vote shares, BJP 40.5 percent, NPF 7 percent, and Others 18 percent in the upcoming elections. While numbers of seats predicted are INC 20, BJP 34, NPF 4, and others 2.

The numbers augur well for the saffron party in the upcoming Assembly elections in the state.

Alliance	2017 Results	2021 Projection	Swing
INC	35.1	34.5	-0.6
BJP	36.3	40.5	4.2
NPF	7.2	7.0	-0.2
Others	21.4	18.0	-3.4

In the last Assembly elections in 2017, Congress emerged as the single largest party, winning 28 of the 60 seats falling short of the majority by three seats. The BJP finished second with 21 seats but formed the government with the support of 11 MLAs from the NPP, NPF, and independents, including one Trinamool Congress MLA.

Alliance	2017 Results	2021 Projection	Change
INC	28	20	-8
BJP	21	34	13
NPF	4	4	0
Others	7	2	-5

In the last Assembly elections in 2017, Congress emerged as the single largest party, winning 28 of the 60 seats falling short of the majority by three seats. The BJP finished second with 21 seats but formed the government with the support of 11 MLAs from the NPP, NPF, and independents, including one Trinamool Congress MLA.

ABP-CVoter Survey, September 2021 Predictions Goa:

Under party alliance, ABP-CVoter Survey projected vote share at 15.4 percent for INC, BJP to get 39.4 percent, AAP to get 22.2 percent,  and Others 23 percent vote share in the upcoming elections. While numbers of seats predicted for INC 5, BJP 24, AAP 6, and Others 5. This time the survey also projects the BJP to reign in power for the consecutive year. 

In the last Assembly elections in 2017, Congress emerged as the single largest party, winning 28 of the 60 seats falling short of the majority by three seats. The BJP finished second with 21 seats but formed the government with the support of 11 MLAs from the NPP, NPF, and independents, including one Trinamool Congress MLA.

Alliance	2017 Results	2021 Projection	Swing
INC	28.4	15.4	-13.0
BJP	32.5	39.4	6.9
AAP	6.3	22.2	15.9
Others	32.8	23.0	-9.8

Meanwhile, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, whose Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) party is contesting the Goa Assembly polls, promised each family in Goa will get up to 300 units electricity-free per month if the party is voted to power. AAP is contesting elections in five states including Goa, Uttarakhand, and Punjab.

Alliance	2017 Results	2021 Projection	Change
INC	17	5	-12
BJP	13	24	11
AAP	0	6	6
Others	10	5	-5

The elections to the 40-member Goa Legislative Assembly are scheduled for February next year. The term of the current Goa Assembly expires on 15^th March 2022.

In 2017, the Goa election results threw up a hung assembly in the state with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning 13 seats and the Congress 17 in the 40-member assembly. However,  the BJP formed an alliance by drawing the support of the Goa Forward Party (GFP), Maharastrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), and two Independents, to reach the magic figure of 21 in the 40-member house.

DISCLAIMER

The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 81000+ across 5 cities (UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa, and Manipur) & the survey was carried out during the period 1^st August 2021 to 2^nd September 2021. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.