Covid-19 Third Wave In India May Peak By January End, Suggests New Study

Due to changes in the testing guidelines by the ICMR, the peak is deviating from its predicted path and the actual peak may not have more than 4 lakh cases per day.

Representational Image (Photo: Getty Images)

New Delhi: After much speculation about the third wave’s peak in India, a new study has revealed that the covid-19 cases in India will peak on January 23 with a predicted number of 7.2 lakh cases per day.

However, due to changes in the testing guidelines by the ICMR, the peak is deviating from its predicted path and the actual peak may not have more than 4 lakh cases per day.

The information was shared by IIT Kanpur Professor, Manindra Agrawal.

“Finally India. Trajectory with data up to 11th indicates the peak on 23th Jan with nearly 7.2 lakh cases per day. The actual trajectory is already deviating significantly, and the actual peak is unlikely to cross 4 lakh cases/day,” Prof Agrawal wrote in a tweet on January 17. 

Explaining the reason for trajectory changes in the predicted model, Prof Agrawal wrote, “Across the country, the trajectories are changing significantly. I speculated earlier that it is due to ICMR guidelines for a changed testing strategy. However, at many places, these guidelines are not yet implemented and still, the trajectory has changed!”

There appear two plausible reasons for this: 1) there are two groups in population, one with less immunity against Omicron and other with more. The mutant first spread in the first group causing sharp rise. Now the first group is exhausted and so the spread is slower.

— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) January 16, 2022

He said there could be two reasons for these changes. The first one is, “there are two groups in the population, one with less immunity against Omicron and the other with more. The mutant first spread in the first group causing a sharp rise. Now the first group is exhausted and so the spread is slower.”

And the second one is, “There was a lot of concern when Omicron started spreading, but in the last week or so, people almost everywhere have concluded that it causes only mild infection and have decided to handle it with standard remedies instead of getting tested.”

As the exact reason behind the change of trajectories is unclear, Prof. Agrawal further gave details on which states have already peaked and which are expected to peak soon. 

According to Prof. Agrawal’s model, Delhi has already peaked on January 16 with half the value of predicted numbers. Mumbai peaked on January 12, and Kolkata on January 13. 

Mumbai: peaked on 12th Jan, two days before model prediction. Peak value about 75% of model prediction. Numbers are decreasing rapidly now, as expected. pic.twitter.com/1cmsaRSKkC

— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) January 16, 2022

If this model stands correctly, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and UP are expected to peak today, on January 19. It will be followed by a peak in Haryana on January 20.

Bengaluru will see a peak on January 22, Karnataka on January 23, and Assam on January 26. However, the trajectories of infections will lay significantly lower than predicted.