UP Bypolls 2024: Exit Polls Give Edge To BJP But Samajwadi Party May Put Up Tough Fight — Poll Of Polls
Uttar Pradesh Bypolls 2024: While some Exit polls give a winning edge to the BJP, some predict a tough contest with the Samajwadi Party, with varying projections of seat distribution. See poll of polls.
Uttar Pradesh Bypolls 2024: Voting for all nine assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh's bypolls concluded on Wednesday, with the Election Commission of India (ECI) reporting a voter turnout of 49.3 per cent. The highest turnout was recorded in the Kundarki assembly seat in Ambedkar Nagar. According to exit poll predictions, the bypolls have witnessed a tight contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA alliance and the Samajwadi Party (SP).
UP Bypolls 2024: Exit Poll Predictions
The Dainik Bhaskar exit poll has projected the BJP-NDA alliance to secure seven of the nine seats, while the SP alliance is likely to win two seats. The survey suggests that SP may retain its strongholds, Sisamau and Karhal, with victories anticipated in these constituencies. Both have historically been SP bastions.
For the BJP, the exit polls bring mixed signals. While the party is projected to win seven seats, it continues to face challenges in SP strongholds. The BJP-NDA alliance is expected to win in Phulpur, Kundarki, Khair, Mirapur, Ghaziabad, Majhwan, and Katehri assembly seats, according to Dainik Bhaskar. The SP is projected to win Sisamau and Karhal strongholds.
The Materize exit poll reflects similar predictions, with the BJP-NDA alliance likely to win seven seats and SP retaining two. Likewise, the JVC Time Now survey forecasts six seats for the BJP and three for the SP.
JVC-Times Now predicts wins in six seats for the BJP+ and three seats for the SP. For the SP, Naseem Solanki is anticipated to emerge victorious in the Sisamau constituency, a seat the party has historically dominated. Similarly, Haji Rizwan is expected to secure the Kundarki seat, while Tej Pratap Yadav is predicted to retain the Karhal constituency for the party.
On the BJP's side, significant victories are forecasted across key constituencies. Suchismita Maurya is predicted to clinch the Manjhva seat, while Surendra Diller is favoured to win in Khair. Phoolpur is expected to deliver another win for the BJP, with Deepak Patel's victory projected by JVC-Times Now. Additionally, Dharmraj Nishad is anticipated to secure the Kathari seat.
| Exit Poll Agency | BJP+ | Samajwadi Party |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 7 | 2 |
| Materize | 7 | 2 |
| JVC Times Now | 6 | 3 |
| Zee News | 5 | 4 |
Meanwhile, the Zee News exit poll projects five seats for the BJP and four for SP, suggesting a closer contest in some constituencies compared to other surveys.
The Uttar Pradesh bypolls for nine assembly seats concluded on Wednesday with an overall voter turnout of 49.3 per cent. Ghaziabad registered the lowest turnout at 33.3 per cent, while Kundarki witnessed the highest participation with 57.7 per cent voting. This marks a drop from the 61.03 per cent turnout recorded during the 2022 assembly elections, news agency PTI reported.
Polling was held from 7 am to 5 pm in Katehari, Karhal, Mirapur, Ghaziabad, Majhawan, Sisamau, Khair, Phulpur, and Kundarki constituencies under heavy security arrangements.
Constituency-Wise Voter Turnout
| Constituency | Turnout (%) |
|---|---|
| Ghaziabad | 33.3 |
| Katehari | 56.9 |
| Khair | 46.3 |
| Kundarki | 57.7 |
| Karhal | 54.1 |
| Majhawan | 50.41 |
| Mirapur | 57.1 |
| Phulpur | 43.43 |
| Sisamau | 49.1 |
The bypolls saw enthusiastic participation, with elderly voters, youth, and physically challenged individuals queuing up to cast their votes. According to PTI, a burqa-clad woman in Karhal said, "I have voted according to what my heart wanted." Another woman accompanying her expressed concerns about inflation and unemployment, saying, "Businesses are not running fine. There is inflation and unemployment, which are bothering people."
In Phulpur, voters highlighted development and law and order as key issues.
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UP Bypolls 2024: Four Cops Suspended As ECI Acts On Complaints
The Election Commission acted on complaints by the Samajwadi Party (SP), alleging that police personnel were checking voters’ IDs and deterring them from casting votes. Four police personnel on duty in Kanpur and Muzaffarnagar were suspended, while some traffic officers in Moradabad were transferred. The BJP also raised concerns, seeking ECI intervention over alleged mismatches between the IDs and faces of burqa-wearing women voters.
This is the first electoral battle in Uttar Pradesh following the Lok Sabha elections. While the Congress has extended support to the SP as part of the INDIA bloc alliance, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) contested all nine seats independently. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM fielded candidates in Ghaziabad, Kundarki, and Mirapur, whereas Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party contested all seats except Sisamau.
Of the nine seats, eight were vacated after MLAs were elected to the Lok Sabha, and Sisamau's bypoll was necessitated due to SP lawmaker Irfan Solanki’s disqualification following his conviction in a criminal case.
The BJP, with 251 MLAs in the 403-member Assembly, remains unaffected by the bypoll results in terms of its legislative strength. In the 2022 assembly elections, the Samajwadi Party secured victories in Sisamau, Katehari, Karhal, and Kundarki, while the BJP won Phulpur, Ghaziabad, Majhawan, and Khair. The Mirapur seat was bagged by the RLD, then an SP ally, which has now joined the BJP-led NDA.
Over 34.35 lakh voters, including 15.88 lakh women, were eligible to vote, with 90 candidates in the fray. Ghaziabad saw the highest number of candidates (14), followed by Khair and Sisamau (5 each).
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