Maharashtra Polls: Can Uddhav's 'Sacrifice' Help MVA Keep Lok Sabha Momentum In A Possible 3-Cornered Fight?
Maharashtra Assembly Polls 2024: The EC's slim window in the delay in announcing the Maharashtra poll dates may just give an edge to the Mahayuti. The MVA, meanwhile, is putting up a united face.
Maharashtra Polls 2024: The Maharashtra elections due later this year are increasingly looking to be heading for a three-cornered fight between the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi, the ruling Mahayuti, and a possible new entrant, Manoj Jarange Patil. With MVA scoring big in the Lok Sabha elections and Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange breathing down the Eknath Shinde government's neck, the BJP seems to be on the backfoot this time around.
Why ECI Did Not Announce Maharashtra Election 2024 Dates
A lot is at stake in Maharashtra, the election dates for which are yet to be announced. The Election Commission of India decided to hold back the announcement for the Maharashtra polls to concentrate on Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir elections.
While announcing the poll schedule for the Jammu & Kashmir and Haryana elections, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said: "Depending on the requirement of forces, which is higher in J&K, we decided to conduct these two polls simultaneously... Moreover, Maharashtra just emerged from a bout of heavy rain and there are a lot of festivals... So, we'll have to handle two elections at a time."
On being asked about Assembly Elections in Maharashtra, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar says, "Lat time, Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections were held together. At that time, J&K was not a factor but this time there are 4 elections this year and 5th election… pic.twitter.com/vf8b1CmfrM
— Lok Poll (@LokPoll) August 16, 2024
The Election Commission must complete the polling process by November 26.
The MVA, however, accused the Election Commission of following its "boss's orders", a clear dig at the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The MVA said despite the government's rhetoric of 'one nation, one election' — something PM Modi mentioned in his Red Fort speech on August 15 — the EC has cited security constraints.
For all that talk of “one nation, one election”, the Entirely Compromised Commission (aka Election commission) states “constraint on security forces” as a reason to not hold elections in Maharashtra, with simultaneous elections in J&K.
— Aaditya Thackeray (@AUThackeray) August 16, 2024
What then has changed under the “strong…
The MVA says the EC is favouring the BJP by delaying the voting process in Maharashtra. According to the MVA, the delay will allow the BJP more time to "make fake promises" and "fool the people of Maharashtra".
Will The Delay In Maharashtra Election Really Benefit BJP-Led Mahayuti?
The BJP could benefit from the delay in polls as the Maharashtra government would get more time to implement the direct benefit transfer schemes. The government is banking heavily on its flagship 'Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana', a women-oriented welfare scheme under which Rs 1,500 will be transferred to 1 crore women in the state. The scheme kicked off on August 17, but the implementation date is considered from July. This scheme will cost the state exchequer Rs 46,000 crore every year.
According to the Election Commission's data for the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, women comprise nearly 48% of the total electorate of 8,85,64,748 eligible voters in Maharashtra. As such, the parties cannot afford to ignore this voter base. Other DBT schemes, such as the CM Vayoshree Scheme, are also likely to be fast-tracked before the polls.
The BJP will have to reshape its image in Maharashtra, especially after it took a pounding in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls over the Maratha protests. It will also get time to work with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh to bolster support for Ajit Pawar's NCP. The RSS has so far been reluctant to campaign for Pawar Junior.
The BJP will also get more time to placate its Mahayuti partners, who were reportedly upset at the saffron party for not getting Cabinet berths at the Centre. Moreover, PM Modi can get more time for rallies in Maharashtra ahead of the polls to boost the morale of the cadre.
READ ON ABP LIVE | No Ministry In Modi Cabinet, Shaky Position Within NDA — Why Ajit Pawar Future In Mahayuti Does Not Appear Bright
Maharashtra Election 2024: The Manoj Jarange and Maratha Quota Factor
A major factor in this year's election would be the Maratha quota protests. The face of the agitation, Manoj Jarange Patil, has already asked his supporters to prepare for the Maharashtra polls likely to be held in November. This would mean a division of the Mahayuti's votes. The Maratha community comprises 30% of Maharashtra's population.
A delay in the election will mean that the BJP will get time to negotiate with Manoj Jarange Patil, and either dissuade him from contesting the polls against Mahayuti or join forces with the ruling coalition.
If Manoj Jarange finally decides to contest polls for the Maratha quota cause, he would be particularly effective in the Marathwada region that has 48 assembly seats. The BJP-NCP-Shiv Sena coalition has already lost 7 of the 8 Lok Sabha seats it contested in this region. Even BJP heavyweight and five-time MP Raosaheb Dadarao Danve Patil lost his Jalna bastion.
What Is In MVA's Favour Ahead Of Maharashtra Election?
What has come out as a reassuring sign for the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi is that Uddhav Thackeray seems to have given up his claim for a shot at returning to the CM's chair for the "greater good of Maharashtra".
In a joint address to party workers with MVA leaders Sharad Pawar and Nana Patole last week, Uddhav Thackeray said he would back the CM candidate decided by the Congress and Sharad Pawar-led NCP. This year, the Maharashtra elections will be held after the Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir polls.
Moreover, both Sharad Pawar's NCP and Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena seem to be bouncing back from the crises the parties steeped into after the rebellions by Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde, respectively. Going by the Lok Sabha election results, the MVA is going strong in 157 of the 288 Assembly segments, while the Mahayuti had an edge in 128 constituencies.
The Opposition has also tried to corner the Eknath Shinde government over the recent Badlapur minors' sexual assault incident. The Opposition highlighted the massive spend roadmap on the Majhi Ladki Bahin scheme, while 'failing' to protect women in the state. It has also raised issues of 'misgovernance', 'breaking the people's trust' through horsetrading, and 'corruption' against the Eknath Sinde government.
The Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM has also expressed its interest to ally with the MVA. However, the presence of AIMIM in Maharashtra is a two-edged sword. The party would want a bigger share of seats in the MVA, which would mean disgruntled leaders in the MVA constituents — a situation the coalition cannot afford. On the flip side, the AIMIM can help the MVA consolidate Muslim votes. In the 2019 Maharashtra assembly polls, the AIMIM sought an alliance with Prakash Ambedkar's VBA, but was offered only 8 seats. This effectively ended any chance of an alliance.
However, the Opposition must not forget Prakash Ambedkar's VBA, which bagged 2.75% of the votes in the Lok Sabha election. The VBA, along with Raj Thackeray's MNS, is likely to have more influence in the state elections.
How The Parties Stand In Maharashtra Assembly Now
As things stand after the division of the NCP and Shiv Sena, the Eknath Shinde-led Sena has 38 MLAs in the assembly while Ajit Pawar's NCP has 41. The Uddhav Sena has been reduced to 15 MLAs. Similarly, Sharad Pawar's NCP is down to 12 leaders in the Maharashtra Assembly.
The government is supported by 13 independents, the Bahujan Vanchit Aghadi, and MNS. However, MNS is likely to continue to fight the polls independently.
The BJP and the Congress have 103 and 36 MLAs in the House, respectively.
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