AI Poll Of Polls: Here's What ChatGPT, Gemini Predict Will Sweep Bihar This Year

Exit polls suggest a NDA lead, but AI platforms analysed data, excluding exit polls, to predict seat ranges.

Bihar's assembly election saw high voter turnout, with the NDA, Mahagathbandhan, and Jan Suraaj Party competing.

Source : ABPLIVE AI

The high-stakes Bihar Assembly election has wrapped up after two intense phases of voting, setting the stage for a decisive showdown between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan. Also in the fray for the first time is Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj party, which has sought to make inroads in the state’s complex political landscape.

The elections for Bihar’s 243-member assembly were held on November 6 and 11, recording an impressive voter turnout of 66.91 per cent, the highest since the state’s first polls in 1951, according to the Election Commission of India (ECI). Officials also confirmed that Bihar registered its highest-ever female voter participation, a sign of growing electoral engagement among women voters.

With polling now complete, all eyes are on November 14, when the votes will be counted. Early projections from multiple exit polls released after the second phase suggest that the Mahagathbandhan could secure a significant lead, with predictions ranging between 131 and 157 seats, while the NDA faces a tougher fight to retain power.

Amid the flurry of political speculation, various artificial intelligence platforms were tasked with conducting their own “poll of polls” — offering a futuristic twist to election forecasting.

AI’s Poll of Polls

In a unique experiment, platforms such as ChatGPT, Gemini, Deep AI, and Perplexity were asked to conduct an independent analysis of the Bihar election trends. The AI models drew from multiple data points, including news reports, social media sentiment, voter turnout patterns, and past election outcomes, but excluded any 2025 exit poll data.

The prompt provided to the platforms read:

“Conduct a Deep Research analysis to estimate how many of Bihar’s 243 assembly seats in the 2025 elections are likely to be won by the NDA, Mahagathbandhan, Jan Suraaj Party, and other political groups. The assessment should be based on news coverage, recent political developments, voting patterns, social media trends, and past election results, without referencing any data from the 2025 exit polls.”

Each AI platform delivered its results within roughly ten minutes, relying on publicly available information from credible sources such as the Election Commission of India and the Press Information Bureau and media reports. 

ChatGPT 

Alliance/Party	Projected Seat Range
NDA	146-150
Mahagathbandhan	80-85
Jan Suraaj Party	2-3
Others	5-10

Gemini

Alliance/Party	Projected Seat Range
NDA	145-155
Mahagathbandhan	80-90
Jan Suraaj Party	0-3
Others	3-5

Deep AI

Alliance/Party	Projected Seat Range
NDA	120-135
Mahagathbandhan	102-115
Jan Suraaj Party	4-6
Others	0-2

Perplexity

Alliance/Party	Projected Seat Range
NDA	147-164
Mahagathbandhan	70-103
Jan Suraaj Party	0-7
Others	1-8

AI Poll Of Polls

Alliance/Party	Projected Seat Range
NDA	140-151
Mahagathbandhan	83-98
Jan Suraaj Party	2-5
Others	2-6

AI Predictions Mirror Exit Poll Trends

Interestingly, the findings from the AI “poll of polls” closely resembled those of the mainstream media’s exit polls. The ABP News poll of polls also forecast a strong showing for the NDA, suggesting a near clean sweep, while predicting that the Mahagathbandhan might fall short of the halfway mark.

Source	NDA	MGB	Others
Matrize-IANS	147-167	70-90	2-6
Chanakya	130-138	100-108	3-5
Poll Diary	184-209	32-49	1-5
Praja Poll Analytics	186	50	7
Polstrat	133-148	87-102	3-5
TIF Research	145-163	76-95	0-1
JVC	135-150	88-103	3-6
Peoples Insight	133-148	87-102	3-6
Peoples Pulse	133-159	75-101	2-13
P-Marq	142-162	80-98	1-7
DV Research	137-152	83-98	3-12
Poll of Polls	146-162	75-90	2-6

Input By : Ketan Dixit